International treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030?
Premium
16
Ṁ15102030
49%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Nuclear weapons don’t count. Signatory countries must total at least 20% of world gdp. I won’t bet on this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
A new international treaty on autonomous weapon systems by 2025-03-23?
29% chance
Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2035?
32% chance
Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035?
78% chance
Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?
66% chance
AI Warning Signs: Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?
42% chance
Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?
20% chance
Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2030?
15% chance
Will we have a sufficient level of international coordination to ensure that AI is no longer threat before 2030?
22% chance
Will the US impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?
14% chance
[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?
73% chance