On January 4th, 2023 Term Sheet, a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023.
One of these predictions was the following:
“Traditional social networks based on individuals (like Facebook) have been declining. Instead, the most dominant form of social media today is algorithmic 3rd party content—the Tik Tok Model. This model has changed social media from network-based connections to consumed entertainment. In 2023, I will be closely watching for a return to community-driven social media. These new social networks will encourage participation and a sense of belonging.” —Youri Lee, investor, IVP
I will not attempt to initially define all resolution criteria in this market and will instead attempt to handle any nuances/complications/data feasibility as it arises. If by end of 2023 I think it is not possible to confidently resolve this market in the spirit in which it was intended, I reserve the right to resolve as "n/a".
Any clarifications to the resolution criteria will be listed below, along with the applicable date:
[TBU]
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@firstuserhere my impression is that there hasn't been much of a shift in social media style since beginning of 2023, at least from my perspective.
@jacksonpolack I'm totally comfortable resolving n/a if necessary. But I think any noticeable shift away from entertainment-social media to community-social media that is reported on in 2023 would result in a Yes resolution.
i'd kinda want to sell then - a lot of things can be reported on while being small in magnitude. there are probably at least 1k people who thought 'algorithm/addictive social media is bad, community / smallscale social media is better' and switched this year, and have been for each of the past five years. and idk what the size of the shift to make this really resolve would be, or how one would measure that!
@jacksonpolack Any report that is only measuring 1k people would not be sufficient IMO to result in a yes or no resolution (given there are hundreds of millions of social media users)
@firstuserhere Yes, I would count both Twitter/Mastodon as community-driven.