
Will there be a new social media platform surpassing Instagram before the end of 2028?
17
1kṀ5492029
40%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolve Yes if a new social media platform with less than 100 million users as of 2024 Jan reaches more monthly active users than Instagram at market close
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_social_platforms_with_at_least_100_million_active_users
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will there be a new social media platform surpassing Instagram before the end of 2025?
20% chance
Will there be a new social media platform surpassing Instagram before the end of 2027?
34% chance
Will there be a new social media platform surpassing Instagram before the end of 2026?
34% chance
Will a new social media platform launched after 1/1/23 surpass 500 million active users by 2026?
28% chance
Will a new social media platform be the most popular worldwide by 2032?
41% chance
Will any social media platform surpass Facebook in terms of global active users by the end of 2025?
47% chance
Which Twitter-like social media platform will be most popular at the end of 2026?
Will any social media app surpass Facebook, Youtube, Instagram, or TikTok in US monthly active users by EOY 2025
27% chance
Will Facebook no longer be the most popular social media platform at any point before the end of 2024?
10% chance
Will YouTube surpass Facebook to be the #1 social media platform in 2028?
70% chance