Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, at any point between August 13, 2026, and August 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, the United States and Iran officially agree to and implement a bilateral ceasefire or mutual halt to military hostilities, and this agreement is mutually acknowledged by both governments.

To resolve to YES, the following conditions must be met before September 1, 2026:

1. Mutual Agreement: Official representatives or agencies of both the United States (e.g., the White House, State Department, or Department of Defense) and Iran (e.g., the Presidency, Foreign Ministry, or Supreme National Security Council) must publicly confirm or acknowledge the existence of an active ceasefire, truce, or formal halt to direct military actions between them.

2. Implementation: Both sides must pause direct military strikes against each other's forces, territories, or assets in accordance with the agreement.

Edge Cases & Clarifications:

• Unilateral ceasefire declarations that are rejected or ignored by the other side (with hostilities continuing) will not qualify as a bilateral ceasefire.

• If one country or mediator claims an agreement or extension has been reached, but the other country officially denies it or claims the deal has collapsed, this will resolve to NO unless a mutual agreement is subsequently confirmed before the deadline.

• Minor skirmishes or isolated proxy incidents will not invalidate an otherwise officially acknowledged and active bilateral ceasefire, provided both governments continue to recognize the ceasefire as being in effect.

• The primary sources of truth for resolving this market will be official government statements corroborated by major international news outlets such as Reuters, Associated Press (AP), and Agence France-Presse (AFP).

Background

In February 2026, the United States and Israel launched a joint military campaign against Iran, marking the beginning of the 2026 Iran war. Following intense fighting, a series of fragile and temporary Pakistan-brokered ceasefires and memorandums were initiated (such as the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding in June) but repeatedly collapsed, with both sides trading military strikes.

As of mid-August 2026, direct military strikes have temporarily paused, but tensions remain extremely high. Conflicting reports have emerged: Turkish state media (Anadolu Agency) reported on August 12, 2026, that the US and Iran agreed to extend a 60-day ceasefire under the Islamabad MoU, but senior Iranian officials quickly denied this to Reuters, stating no such extension talks occurred and that the previous deal had already collapsed due to US violations. Meanwhile, the US continues its naval blockade of Iranian ports, and low-intensity direct engagements persist. This market asks whether a genuine, mutually recognized ceasefire will be established before the end of August 2026.

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