Market resolves "YES" if any organization listed here shuts down by 11:59 p.m. (AoE) 31-12-2023.
Market resolves "YES" if an organization not currently on the list is added (in good faith) and shuts down within the year.
Market resolves "N/A" if there is bad faith meddling in the wiki page (this is somewhat arbitrary, yes, but if someone adds a bunch of non-EA organizations or adds one they made up with the intent of shutting it down to manipulate the market or something of that flavor, the market is cancelled).
Market resolves "NO" if all organizations listed are extant by the end of the year.
Market resolves "NO" if two organizations merge and the merged organization is extant by the end of the year.
Market resolves "NO" if one organization splits and the resulting organizations are extant by the end of the year. If one of those resulting organizations shuts down, though, the market will resolve "YES."
Temporary closures (even temporary closures with indefinite ending dates) do not constitute "shutting down" for purposes of this market, only explictly permanent ones do.
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The criteria in this market were way too generous to reflect "major EA Organization" IMO, but the criteria are also very clear so I think this is ready to resolve YES.
I think it would be unfair for this to resolve YES due to Projekt Framtid, but that thing hasn't been active for years, and shouldn't have been on the list in the first place IMO.
A better candidate would be Pandemic Prevention Network, which used to have some full-time EAs working on it, but now have their website shut down and founder Jasmin Kaur in a new full-time role.
@HenriThunberg (I've asked in the Discord to resolve this, as the market creator seems to have deleted their account)
@JonathanRay otoh there are so many organizations listed that probably the original probability was too low