This market resolves YES if at least one “third-way” candidate receives 10.0% or more of valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, according to the official results published by Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court, the TSE.
This market resolves NO if no “third-way” candidate receives 10.0% or more of valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.
For the purposes of this market, a third-way candidate means any presidential candidate other than:
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva or the official presidential nominee of PT;
Flávio Bolsonaro or the official presidential nominee of PL;
Jair Bolsonaro;
any candidate with “Bolsonaro” as part of their name.
Only the official first-round presidential results published by the TSE will count. Polls, projections, exit polls, media calls, null votes, blank votes, and abstentions will not count.
If the 2026 Brazilian presidential election does not hold a first round, or if official first-round presidential results are not published by the TSE, this market resolves N/A.
1,000