Brazil 2026 Election: Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ161Oct 4
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
83%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
66%
Flávio Bolsonaro
8%
Tarcício de Freitas
8%
Fernando Haddad
Resolution criteria
A candidate must receive more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round to win outright. If no candidate does so, the top two candidates head to a runoff. The first round is scheduled for October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25 if needed. Resolution will be based on official results reported by the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) at https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/. A candidate resolves "Yes" if they advance to the runoff or win outright in the first round; otherwise "No".
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Brazil 2026 Election: Will the presidential election be decided in first round?
12% chance
Who will win the 2026 Brazilian Presidential Election?
Who will be on the ballot for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
2026 Brazil Presidential Election Winner?
Brazil 2026 Election: Who will participate in at least one televised Brazilian presidential debate?
Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election?
Brazil 2026 Election: Who will be elected Governor of São Paulo?
Brazil 2026 Election: Who will be elected State Governor in Rio de Janeiro (RJ)?
Brazil 2026 Election: Who will be the PSD candidate for President of Brazil?
Brazil 2026 Election: Who will be elected State Governor in São Paulo (SP)?