Each answer resolves YES or NO independently.

For each polling organization, consider their last publicly released national presidential voting-intention poll registered in TSE before election day (exclude exit polls / “boca de urna”).

Let the top-2 candidates be the two candidates with the highest official 1st-round valid-vote share in the results published by Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE).

A pollster’s answer resolves YES if both top-2 candidates’ poll estimates are within the poll’s stated margin of error (in percentage points) of the official result:

• For each of the two candidates: |poll_estimate − official_result| ≤ margin_of_error

• If either candidate is outside the margin → NO

Valid votes rule (to avoid ambiguity)

• If the poll reports a “valid votes” table for the first round, use it.

• Otherwise, convert to “valid votes” by renormalizing across named candidates only (exclude blank/null, undecided, refused, “don’t know”, etc.).

Edge cases

• If the pollster has no eligible poll (not national / not registered / not publicly released / missing MoE), that answer resolves NO.