Brazil has beem tracking US presidential outcomes since the 2016 election of Donald Trump. This market wants to check whether this trend continues.

By that, I mean

• The political orientation of the president elected is the same (left or right)

• Whether or not Biden and Lula both run or both don't run for re-election

• The president elected is the same elected for the current term (Biden and Lula)

• If both Trump and Bolsonaro run or both don't run

• The president elected is the predecessor to current president (Trump and Bolsonaro)

• The president elected is a third person to both countries

• Whether or both counties have a peaceful transition of power or both DON'T have a peaceful transition of power

• Whether both countries have important accusations of fraud with international mainstream media outlets saying so (The Economist, The Guardian, Aljazeera...) or not

By January 21st 2025 I will update this market if the outcomes the Brazilian 2026 presidential election has to have.

The idea is that the outcomes have to be the same for all countries. So if DeSantis is elected president and the US has problems counting the votes, this market would be solved if Romeu Zema is elected and Brazil also has significant fraud problems with the vote counting, this market would solve YES.

All it takes for this market to be solved NO is for one issue go south. So if Biden doesn't run but Lula runs, this market would be solved to NO preemptively.