Background Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is currently ineligible to run for office until 2030 due to a ruling by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) for allegedly abusing political power during his presidency. The "Ficha Limpa" (Clean Record) law is a key piece of legislation that prevents politicians convicted of certain crimes or electoral violations from running for office.
Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if:
Changes to Brazil's ineligibility laws, including the "Ficha Limpa" law, are enacted before the 2026 election registration deadline.
These changes specifically enable Bolsonaro to legally register as a candidate for the 2026 presidential election
The market will resolve NO if:
No relevant changes are made to the ineligibility laws
Changes are made but they do not enable Bolsonaro to run
Changes are made after the registration deadline for the 2026 election
Considerations
Changing the "Ficha Limpa" law would require approval from both houses of Congress
Such changes could face constitutional challenges in the Supreme Court
Even if changes are approved by Congress, they may need to survive judicial review to be implemented
The timeline is relatively tight, as electoral law changes typically need to be enacted at least one year before the election to take effect
1,000Proposed resolution: NO — RFC, 7 days
The registration deadline for the 2026 election has passed. Jair Bolsonaro did not and could not register: he remains ineligible until 2030 under the TSE ruling, and is serving a 27-year sentence for the attempted coup. The PL ran Flávio Bolsonaro for president instead; the TSE validated six presidential tickets, none headed by Jair.
On the law itself: LC 219/2025 did change how ineligibility periods are counted, and it plausibly benefits politicians such as Arruda, Cunha, Garotinho and Cabral. It did not enable Bolsonaro. Its core provisions are also under STF review — Cármen Lúcia voted to strike them down, Gilmar Mendes asked for vista, and the judgment is suspended with no date to resume.
That maps onto the second NO branch in the criteria: "Changes are made but they do not enable Bolsonaro to run."
Objections welcome. I will resolve on 2026-09-16 absent a persuasive argument.
Sources: TSE — validation of presidential registrations · CNN Brasil — TSE ministers rule out Bolsonaro eligibility · Monitor Mercantil — LC 219/2025 and the STF challenge
Resolution research done with AI assistance; all sources linked above.
Bolsonaro articula mudar Ficha Limpa no Congresso para driblar inelegibilidade | Blog da Andréia Sadi | G1 https://g1.globo.com/politica/blog/andreia-sadi/post/2025/02/04/bolsonaro-articula-mudar-ficha-limpa-no-congresso-para-driblar-inelegibilidade.ghtml