Background Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is currently ineligible to run for office until 2030 due to a ruling by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) for allegedly abusing political power during his presidency. The "Ficha Limpa" (Clean Record) law is a key piece of legislation that prevents politicians convicted of certain crimes or electoral violations from running for office.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if:

• Changes to Brazil's ineligibility laws, including the "Ficha Limpa" law, are enacted before the 2026 election registration deadline.

• These changes specifically enable Bolsonaro to legally register as a candidate for the 2026 presidential election

The market will resolve NO if:

• No relevant changes are made to the ineligibility laws

• Changes are made but they do not enable Bolsonaro to run

• Changes are made after the registration deadline for the 2026 election

Considerations

• Changing the "Ficha Limpa" law would require approval from both houses of Congress

• Such changes could face constitutional challenges in the Supreme Court

• Even if changes are approved by Congress, they may need to survive judicial review to be implemented

• The timeline is relatively tight, as electoral law changes typically need to be enacted at least one year before the election to take effect