I wonder what would happen if the market maker believed that there was voter fraud (like Trump). That would be funny.

Luckily the market is about who has control, not who got more votes.

@a The result would probably be the same ;-)

@Sjlver ... although it depends on whether you count just the 35 seats that were up for re-election, or look at all the 100 seats. In the former case, since there are 19/35 republican seats, republicans probably did get more votes.

Democrats will keep control of the Senate, CNN projects, after victories in close contests in Nevada and Arizona.

RESOLVE TIME https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1591616604541923328?s=20&t=1PXSYm5N_oO8Qw4N6xmGnw

channeling r/wallstreetbets and buying a copium-position

So seems like polls and 538 were pretty much correct. And everybody else was wrong? (538 polls only model was 50/50, "classic" model that incorporates fundamentals was 51/49 for GOP, and "deluxe" model that incorporates expert opinion was 59/41 for GOP). So seems that we should be relying on polls more despite past issues. Does this mean they successfully compensated for non-response bias?

Yeah, 538 did very well here. However, Metaculus actually is the big winner so far in the comparison I've been running: https://manifold.markets/post/comparing-election-forecast-accurac

This is a snapshot of the current scores using the prediction market probabilities for the races that haven't been called yet - scores will change as the results come in.

These are log scores: green (closer to 0) means more accurate, red (more negative) means less accurate

For comparison: predicting 50% for everything gets log score -0.69

Congrats to Manifold for being more accurate (so far) than all the other prediction markets!!

@jack It’s cause we are the smartest!!

Posted updated results and analysis here: https://firstsigma.substack.com/p/midterm-elections-forecast-comparison

I've somehow managed to profit in both this market and Tom Shlomi's opposed one, even though I was just trying to arbitrage. Yall were very swingy for the past few hours. Maybe the bots weren't sure what to do with the (1-p) inverse?

In light of suggestions that the Georgia Race might go to a runoff, I am extending the close date of the market.

Some people have brought up that senate control might depend on a Georgia runoff. Going by the title, you might well expect the close date to be extended. Does anyone want to give an argument against doing this?

@BoltonBailey seems completely reasonable

It looks like this could be a Georgia runoff 50-49 election situation. How would this be handled?

@DavidDavidson Seems obvious that the midterm elections don't end until the runoff.

@DavidDavidson I'd be shocked if the market resolved before then, and very surprised if the date wasn't extended.

@NcyRocks OK, didn't know dates could be extended. Thank you.

@DavidDavidson I buy @notmachine 's argument here. It wasn't what I intended, but the criterion explicitly says "If I decide that the number of seats won by Democrats is ambiguous as of the resolution date, the market resolves to N/A." I'm not sure I can justify not resolving N/A in this scenario.

@NcyRocks Feels a little bad to change the resolution date when the market description makes reference to it, no?

@BoltonBailey Damn and N/A means a wash, no gains or losses right?

Dems are most likely to win without GA. So it's most likely a freeroll (win or wash). I shouldn't have sold so early LUL

@BoltonBailey You refer to the resolution date, not the close date. Again, it seems obvious to me that the resolution date is (in a runoff scenario) whenever the runoff results come in.

@NcyRocks Indeed this market was made several months ago, when Close date and Resolution date were different things. I wonder if it was different for this market?

It's also hard for me to say if anyone would really care if I extended the market. Would anyone be screwed over by that? Maybe someone who bet on this market assuming there was a high chance of the runoff condition and used it to arb something else? Not sure anyone is really doing something so nuanced.