This market is a derivative combining the following other markets, and resolves directly on the basis of their individual resolutions (note that even if there is a discrepancy where the resolved party nominee is replaced, I will still use these markets):
The market will only resolve N/A if one of the underlying markets does. The "Other" option accounts for all combinations not currently listed.
1,000People are also trading
@FergusArgyll This will not resolve N/A unless one of the underlying markets does, the "Other" option accounts for all combinations not currently listed.
@EvanDaniel The issue is that it's hard to list every single possible other candidate so that you can fully arb a particular nominee in a submarket against the markets here.
@BoltonBailey yep. And the required "other" trade kills all the overbroad implication arbs.
Needs stat arb techniques to handle well, I think.
@EvanDaniel I am mainly making this market as a proof-of-concept for a blog I will post shortly, but hopefully closer to 2028 the fields will narrow and this can be arbed more safely.
@BoltonBailey I look forward to it!
My attempt in similar vein was /EvanDaniel/2028-presidency-vance-newsom-or-oth , but that has too many options for too few candidates. I might make another copy of it anyway is someone else overtakes either of those two as the leader.
@BoltonBailey Nice market! I would love an Ind MC version where all that don't happen resolve N/A, just to play out different scenarios.