Will the Chandrayaan-3 lunar lander successfully land on the moon?
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resolved Aug 23
Resolved
YES

https://www.space.com/india-stacks-chandrayaan-3-moon-mission-rocket-photos

Has to successfully land on the moon.

'success' being defined as it lands, and is still able to send back telemetry. If there is radio silence after the scheduled landing period, its considered a 'failure'

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predicted NO

Congrats to ISRO!

predicted YES

Seems 99% ok to resolve YES... I'll wait another hour or 2
https://twitter.com/isro/status/1694327198394863911

predicted YES
predicted YES
bought แน€700 of YES

Resolves Yes :D

bought แน€7 of NO

@Mqrius Was there any telemetry received after the landing?

bought แน€681 of YES

@lukres Considering they didn't report losing signal, I imagine they maintained the same stream of telemetry they were referring to throughout the entire landing process

predicted YES

@Gen Yeah, I agree with Genzy. I don't think they showed anything specifically on stream, but the reactions from the people indicate that they didn't lose telemetry.

predicted NO

@Mqrius I agree that it was likely successful but no harm in waiting a few hours for actual proof.

predicted YES
sold แน€9 of NO

@Mqrius Okay I give up. Actually that is better than Manifold mana ๐Ÿ˜‚

predicted NO

They're delaying because it's doomed. No way can India do something like this.

@TimothyBandors ๐Ÿ™„

predicted YES

changing end date to 28th, as there is information now saying they may delay landing to 27th if complications

predicted NO

@Blomfilter tse tse. They should just crash it and not postpone it.

predicted YES

@gigab0nus well, more time in space for a random space-debris rock to hit it, so it may benefit NO bettors... ;)

bought แน€500 of NO

As much as I hope they do succeed, the moon is a very hard place to successfully land. Iโ€™m betting no based on overall global track record

predicted NO

@Blomfilter The music is ominously fitting as a dirge for a crashed lander.

Detailed breakdown of why Chandrayaan 2 failed and some of the software fixes + hardware improvements that are being implemented on Chandrayaan 3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ngVl6iO94c

The fact that they got so close the first time, are now most of the way through their second attempt, and have really gone all-out to overbuild Chandrayaan 3 for the final landing phase, makes me feel pretty confident that they will pull it off.

bought แน€50 of NO

@JacksonWagner I wouldnโ€™t call this close. The lander started failing at the beginning of the descent and the corrections made things worse. In terms of difficulty, Iโ€™m not even sure the lander made it past the half-way point.

What are people updating on? I can't see any negative news

predicted YES
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