Will Intuitive Machine's IM-3 mission successfully land on the moon?
19
120
390
2025
72%
chance

Intuitive Machines is a private spaceflight company. The IM-3 mission has been contracted by NASA under the Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program to build and fly a lander to the surface of the moon.

For a successful mission the Nova-C lander needs to soft-land on the moon such that the landing does not interfere with the function of the payloads, and the mission timeline is not cut by more than 50%. IM-3 is preceeded by IM-1 and IM-2.

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@Sailfish presumably, if the mission is cancelled somehow, this would resolve NO?

@Bayesian If it's cancelled it'll resolve NO, if it's renamed or rerolled into a new mission I'll either N/A it or rename it. Any third attempt of a Nova-C lander by IM probably counts as IM-3. If they switch landers I'll probably N/A it. If they outright cancel it, don't attempt, or go out of business, it'll be NO.