Will Chandrayaan-4 succeed in returning samples from the moon? | Manifold

Will Chandrayaan-4 succeed in returning samples from the moon?

8

150Ṁ144

2028

48%

chance

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6H

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1M

ALL

If samples are returned safely to Earth, this market resolves Yes.
If Chandrayaan-4 is changed to no longer attempt a return, this will resolve No.
If the Chandrayaan-4 program is officially cancelled, this will resolve No.

Let me know if you think of other conditions or edge cases I should clarify.

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Related questions

Will Astrobotic's Griffin Lander land (mostly successfully) on the moon?

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Will the SSTL Lunar Pathfinder satellite be a success?

Will China successfully complete a Mars Sample Return mission before the USA and Europe do?

Will NASA bring back Mars samples to Earth before China?

Will Astrobotic's Astrobotic Mission 3 mission successfully land on the moon?

Will India send astronauts to the moon before 2040?

Before which year will a Venus Sample Return Mission be successfully completed?

Will NASA's Artemis 3 mission be successful?

Will MMX successfully return samples from Phobos to Earth?

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