Will Tianwen-3 successfully land on Mars?
Will Tianwen-3 successfully land on Mars?
4
130Ṁ752035
73%
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Tianwen-3 is a dual launch mission comprising a combination orbiter and Earth return vehicle, and a combination lander ascent vehicle. Both are built by the China Academy of Space Technology (CAST) for CNSA, China's national space agency. The orbiter / return vehicle is planned to be launched in November of 2028, the lander is planned to be launched in May or December of 2028. For this market to resolve "Yes" the lander only, as part of the Tianwen-3 mission, needs to successfully land on Mars.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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