Will NASA's Artemis 3 mission be successful?
18
Ṁ1kṀ1.5k2030
80%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if at least one Artemis III astronaut successfully sets foot on the lunar surface, and all Artemis III astronauts return safely to Earth. If the first Artemis crewed lunar landing is moved from Artemis III to a different Artemis mission, this question will resolve based on the result of that mission instead.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
[ACX 2026] Will NASA's Artemis II complete its mission successfully before 2027?
98% chance
Artemis III flown with a crewed landing? x Will China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon?
Will Artemis II crew successfully complete lunar flyby and return to Earth?
97% chance
Will there be a lethal disaster during the Artemis II mission? (duplicate)
3% chance
Will Artemis 3 be a crewed moon landing?
1% chance
Will SLS be used for Artemis 3 as planned?
22% chance
Will NASA's mission Artemis III find water and use it on the Moon?
2% chance
Will the Artemis 2 astronauts return on schedule?
98% chance
Will Astrobotic's Astrobotic Mission 3 mission successfully land on the moon?
55% chance
Will Artemis 3 return to Earth with all of its crew alive?
96% chance