This question resolves YES if, at some time in the next few millenia, I am extremely confident to be immortal: (1) won't expect to die, and (2) won't expect entropy to be an issue in 10**100 years, etc. If I die, or if the time runs out without any inkling of how this could even resolve positively, I'll resolve this question to NO. Quantum immortality doesn't count. Update 2026-05-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): On the definition of "I" (identity) for resolution: No requirement for physical continuity or continuity of experience/psychology Continuity of values and memories and smoothness of self are important Each moment's self must be able to recognize the next/previous moment's self as the "same" person The creator's current self must be able to look at their future self and agree it is literally them This may be path-dependent

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 8% chance (27 traders, as of May 21, 2026).

Will I live forever?

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This question resolves YES if, at some time in the next few millenia, I am extremely confident to be immortal: (1) won't expect to die, and (2) won't expect entropy to be an issue in 10**100 years, etc.

If I die, or if the time runs out without any inkling of how this could even resolve positively, I'll resolve this question to NO.

Quantum immortality doesn't count.

Update 2026-05-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): On the definition of "I" (identity) for resolution:
- No requirement for physical continuity or continuity of experience/psychology
- Continuity of values and memories and smoothness of self are important
- Each moment's self must be able to recognize the next/previous moment's self as the "same" person
- The creator's current self must be able to look at their future self and agree it is literally them
- This may be path-dependent

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Can you say what you mean by "I", that is, what identity theory/preference/other term are you using here? Body, psychological continuity, genes, consciousness, etc etc? Does it count if you're delusional?

@Lilemont No need for physical continuity or continuity of experience / psychology. Continuity of values-ish / memories-ish, and smoothness in self, are pretty important though. Like every moment’s self should be able to say that the next moment’s self is the “same” person, and similarly to the previous moment’s self. But in a way that is robust to me changing my conception of what the self is. I also need to stay to the point that my current self would see my future self and agree that, pretty literally speaking, it is me. And this may be path-dependent.

Please explain what you've done to ensure this resolves "No" when you die.

@Jotto999 Joke answer: if I die, I’ll have bigger worries.

Real answer: I thereby pronounce any manifold admin allowed to resolve this market negatively if they estimate a >95% chance that I am dead.

@BionicD0LPH1N Okay, but will they actually do that? How do I, as a random forecaster, know that they'll do that?

predictedYES

@Jotto999 how about asking them on their policy for resolving markets with absent creator?

@Lavander I tried a cursory search. Sure, each individual forecaster could go manually ask them. But ideally it should be obvious in the question itself.