Will I live to see 2026?
87
1.4kṀ8965
2026
96%
chance

The market resolves YES if I am alive at January 1, 2026

The market resolves NO if I am dead by January 1, 2026, whether by suicide or other reasons.

This market resolves INDETERMINATE if I become Schodinger's human.

Context:

I am highly suicidal. I have been bribed with $9,000 donated to the Against Malaria Foundation (equivalent to 2 lives) in exchange for me living to 18 (November 5, 2023), which I think is fairly likely.

A large reason for my suicidality is my abusive parents. Many people think that after I move out of their house, I will want to live.

My personal views on this:

Outside view says yes, I will survive to this date.

Inside view says I can't really imagine being happy.

If I'm happy enough that I value life over death, or that my suffering is minor enough that I'm willing to live for the sake of other people, then I will likely live.

Keep in mind though that I may take more risks than the average person, so my risk of accidental death is likely higher, although I don't think that factors significantly into the probability.

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