Will I live to see 2026?

The market resolves YES if I am alive at January 1, 2026

The market resolves NO if I am dead by January 1, 2026, whether by suicide or other reasons.

This market resolves INDETERMINATE if I become Schodinger's human.


I am highly suicidal. I have been bribed with $9,000 donated to the Against Malaria Foundation (equivalent to 2 lives) in exchange for me living to 18 (November 5, 2023), which I think is fairly likely.

A large reason for my suicidality is my abusive parents. Many people think that after I move out of their house, I will want to live.

My personal views on this:

Outside view says yes, I will survive to this date.

Inside view says I can't really imagine being happy.

If I'm happy enough that I value life over death, or that my suffering is minor enough that I'm willing to live for the sake of other people, then I will likely live.

Keep in mind though that I may take more risks than the average person, so my risk of accidental death is likely higher, although I don't think that factors significantly into the probability.


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predicts YES

bought Ṁ100 of YES

For whatever it's worth, I think that even from the perspective of a worldview that considers suicide theoretically justifiable, an even vaguely physically healthy person under the age of 30 killing themselves is an insanely terrible decision - I know life can feel pretty unbearable sometimes but there's just so much obvious potential for things to get better, even just moving out of an abusive environment is a huge deal. The expected value of your staying alive relative to dying soon is MASSIVELY POSITIVE, so when things get down hang on to the rational part of yourself that realises you'd be needlessly passing up a huge amount of potential if you comitted suicide.

I'm no sage, but here's some advice I have high confidence in:

-Make sure you do move out as soon as you reasonably can, people seldom regret leaving abusive households as long as they have anywhere safe to go.

-Actively seek out friends/volunteers/programs/therapy/literally whatever is avaible to actively build a sustainable, life-affirming lifestyle; a big reason depression is so insidious is it demotivates you from materially improving your situation, pushing through this and finding all the help you can to do so is a strong strategy.

-Be careful about spending too much time in the company of others (in person or online) with dangerously low mental health; obviously there is some solidarity there but there's also a very real dynamic where people can drag each other down this way.

Don't commit suicide (it could kill you)

Happiness comes from good habits.

Unhappiness is always local.

The latter takes some thinking to exit, the former really does depend on the basic things people suggest.

Find a few goals or things you can control, read some Marcus Aurelius, and notice that childhood has minimal correlation to afterwards.

Probably the feelings are 100% about where you live and who has power over you, and completely go away when either or both change.

I struggled a lot with depression and suicidal ideation in college. Ultimately got out of it by taking antidepressants and hrt, and spending more time with friends who valued me. It's hard to live through and a lot of people don't really get what it's like. But personally, I think it made me better in the end because I became more self-reflective and I used "having nothing to lose" as an excuse to be fearless, risk-taking, and ambitious.

bought Ṁ30 of YES

I also grew up in a highly abusive household, and I promise that it gets so, so much better once you're able to escape. My sister and I were both suicidal as teenagers, but we've made it to 26 and 23 now, respectively. Getting away from abusive parents, and not having to live in fear all the time, makes life much more bearable.

predicts YES

personal experience with depression is that it can pretty much stop pretty spontaneously and then you realize how much motivated reasoning and general not-good reasoning you were doing beforehand and it seems absurd that you would ever want to die or felt depressed or whatever. mostly what got me out of my depression was recognizing that part of it was not-good reasoning and the other part were problems i could be strategic about and could try fixing.

moving out of your parents' house is beyond just a random spontaneous depression-stopping thing but like also a thing you can fix right now. if you value your continued existence (which may last many many years), whether because it will have a lot of nice experiences for you or because it will give value to others, more than you disvalue the few years you will spend at your parents' house, then you should try to be strategic and find a way to improve your situation, whether by finding a way to get out of your parents' house or otherwise.

predicts YES

@metachirality > personal experience with depression is that it can pretty much stop pretty spontaneously and then you realize how much motivated reasoning and general not-good reasoning you were doing beforehand and it seems absurd that you would ever want to die or felt depressed or whatever.

for me, this spontaneous change was triggered by me just suddenly realizing something. im not sure how easy it is to communicate this idea, it's pretty antimemetic, but it did happen eventually.

you seem to be seriously considering the possibility of a change from suicidal to generally liking life, which should make the expected value of staying alive outweigh dying.

Hi. As some context, I'm someone who believes that suicide is not inherently unethical (though it can be a bad idea from a personal perspective), and I'm willing to discuss it in more depth than just "try to emotionally guilt them into not doing it and call the cops on them if that doesn't work".

Some past markets I've made ‌‌‌‌on the subject, to hopefully show that I mean what I say:





If you'd like to have a serious discussion about your situation, I'd be interested in talking it over with you. Feel free to PM me on Discord if this sounds like something you might find interesting or helpful.


@IsaacKing please please do not contact this guy on Discord

@NiciusB I can't; I don't know what their Discord account name is, and I wouldn't want to try to force a conversation on them anyway. I'm just offering that they can reach out to me if they want to.

Have you tried therapy ? And ... Some of my views make me think, that it's your own life, and if you want to end it. You have every rights to. But... I also don't want you to. One of the reason id very selfish, and that it is that it pains me to imagine your life and that you never got to experience happyness ot at least a state of happyness. Also, why betting on No ? By definition, you'd gain nothing from that.

@XavierBaton Signalling.

bought Ṁ44 of YES

I'm putting in on YES because I believe you should continue. So much will change in your life as right now, you're just at the start of it. Believe me, I'm 43 and the gulf between me at 18 and at 43 is ...immense. It's almost like I'm almost two different people now.

I know it's trite when people say "It will get better" but it might. Or at least it you'll be faced with different challenges - they might be better or worse but at least they'll be different.

Happy to voice chat or similar over Discord, I might be able to give you a different perspective on things.

bought Ṁ25 of YES

How would you resolve this if it was NO? Does someone else have access to your manifold account?

predicts NO

@eva_ I can give someone it before I die

@eva_ Not necessary, the mods can resolve it if there's proof of the correct resolution.

I hope you choose life. I do generally think "if you're seriously depressed where you are or doing what you're doing, move and do something else" is good advice. It's been one of the key lessons of my life.

@EzraSchott I think that's good advice when it's a possibility, but not everyone has the ability to change their life in a significant way, at least not without incurring significant risk.

@IsaacKing That's true. Often people do feel trapped when they're not though.

Does that 9k meaningfully increase your happiness?

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@xyz Nope, not really! But I feel morally obligated to do so anyways! I can't really justify my suffering being more valuable than 2 lives so

bought Ṁ10 of NO

is "if i survive i will win a bunch of manifold bucks" an incentive that will impact you much

bought Ṁ20 of YES


@Celene You can add them to the AMF donation. :)