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MANIFOLD
Will I live to be 150 years old?
61
Ṁ1kṀ38k
2192
12%
chance

I'm currently 20 years old. I have no major health issues or family history of health issues. I generally don't participate in dangerous activities.

I love my life and want to stay alive for as long as possible. I could see myself wanting to live for thousands of years if I could. I intend to continue living even if I foresee my utility being net negative for the foreseeable future, but that may change in the future.

Market resolves "n/a" if I die as a result of intentional market manipulation.

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Baseline and the honest case for YES. On the SSA 2023 period table, of US men alive at 23 about 1.0% reach 100 and 2 in 100,000 reach 110; past 105 the annual probability of death flattens near 50% (Barbi et al., Science 2018), so 150 on today's biology is effectively zero and the record stands at 122. What your cohort has that older ones do not is time: born around 2003, you reach 65 in 2068, decades after the current pipeline resolves. The first placebo-controlled lifespan trials of anti-aging drugs in a mammal that lives with us (TRIAD and Loyal's STAY study in dogs) read out around 2029 to 2031; human lifespan trials that follow a positive result take about 21 years from enrolment at 65, so land in the 2050s. So the question for you is not what the table says but whether that pipeline delivers, and the dog results are the first real signal. The arithmetic with sources (mine): https://w0lph.github.io/k9/why-dogs.html?v=2

Well when the question is about general public i.e. "Will anybody born before 2000 live to be 150?" and such, there's a high probability; but when it comes to individuals among them, the probability gets much lower...

bought Ṁ10 YES

I intend to continue living even if I foresee my utility being net negative for the foreseeable future, but that may change in the future

Do you currently foresee your utility being positive or negative?

@TheAllMemeingEye very positive

How will you resolve when dead?

predictedYES

@RutgerDeMaeyer My child can resolve the market.

@justifieduseofFallibilism will you get married and have a child?