I'd like to live forever. I'm reasonably healthy, age 35, cardio exercise regularly, not overweight, don't smoke cigarettes, don't drive.
1,000People are also trading
Your personal timeline against the evidence pipeline, since you were 35 in 2023. On the SSA 2023 period table, of US men alive at 38 about 1.0% reach 100 and 2 in 100,000 reach 110; 1,000 needs the annual hazard held under 0.07% for a millennium, below a child's. The things that could change that are on fixed clocks: the first placebo-controlled lifespan trials of anti-aging drugs are in dogs (TRIAD, Loyal's STAY study) and read out around 2029 to 2031, when you are about 43; a human lifespan trial started on a positive dog result takes about 21 years from enrolment at 65, so human lifespan evidence lands in the 2050s, when you are in your 60s, which is before your own hazard climbs steeply (it doubles roughly every eight years from the 30s). So the honest reading is: the base rate is near zero, the pipeline is not, and the dog results are the first thing that moves this. The arithmetic with sources (mine): https://w0lph.github.io/k9/why-dogs.html?v=2
@PS I did put 888 against so I myself am really dragging down the results. Prove me wrong!! and arbitrage bigly!
@hrdwdmrbl For the record, it is my #1 wish to live forever, but ATM I’m not seeing a plausible path.
@XTXinverseXTY My SO will have account access. Or the market will naturally go to 0 just by bets because i haven’t been seen in a couple hundred years 😄