🏅 Top traders

Congrats to Google! next market here:

deepseek r2 rumored to launch this week. i don't think they're likely to lmarena-maxx, but there is a chance they do hill-climb and it gets released in time. should be more than 3%, maybe 10%

lmarena just updated, how do i sell with api, can someone link or somethin? Thanks

shameless plug 😜

/Soli/who-will-have-the-best-llm-at-the-e-382ae559b471

way too much volatility here folks

o3-pro coming in “a few weeks”, could be a buzzer beater

o-series traditionally underperformed in Chatbot Arena, and also Google is testing a new model in Chatbot Arena, codename Dragontail.

@Bayesian Why do you still hold shares for Google?

@Grothenfla lmarena is not like most other benchmarks. o-series massively underperforms

Why's OpenAI so low? o3 seems to beating 2.5 pro across most benchmarks, no?

@fugui Wow this is a wild looking bet card

Gemini cheated in the benchmarks guys

No

@Bayesian yeah ur correct i mixed it up with llama my bad 😭

@async lmfao

I have been using Chat GPT to help me make diagrams in latex for lectures and papers. It’s is very good and can get it mostly right on the first try when I prompt it with a scenario I want to visualise. I tried Gemini today. It was horrible. Did not understand the prompt and the code it gave didn’t even compile . I realise this is a small thing, but just thought the info might be helpful.

I think this market is really really under-estimating OpenAI and I'm tremendously confused. Is there a reason to think that o3 will be outperformed by Gemini?

@Clue First of all, there's a chance that o3 won't be released this month, or at least that it won't be available on the arena.

Second, o1 has scored relatively poorly on the leaderboard. The latest version of GPT-4o has an Elo score of 1410, and o1 has an Elo score of only 1351.

I'm not quite sure why that is. My first guess was that OpenAI's reasoning models are tuned specifically toward math and coding problems and do less well in other areas. But their Elo score isn't that different for math and coding categories compared to the overall score.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 I'm my experience chatgpt is the one that makes the most hallucinations when coding, those are super annoying

@TimothyJohnson5c16 I hadn't considered that o3, were it to release, might underperform because of what it's designed to be good at. That changes how I feel. Having said that, I'm incorporating that it might not come out in my statement: https://manifold.markets/Clue/openai-o3-release-to-plus-users-in

new month, june! doing them in advance seems useful but i'm not sure i could be convinced otherwise

meta is looking strong with "spider"

@jim meh it's not even close to 2.5

@Bayesian no.2 on leaderboard 🤷

@jim Sloptimized

@Bayesian unparsimonious

@jim It is parsimonious, it explains how people hate using it and it doesn’t feel smart