Which company has best AI model end of April? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)
5
1kṀ13k
May 1
36%
OpenAI
22%
xAI
13%
Anthropic
8%
Google
10%
Meta
2%
Alibaba
4%
DeepSeek
5%
Other

Resolution is based on the chatbot arena LLM leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai), specifically the company with the highest Arena Score in the Overall category without filters (without style control or show deprecated), at the end of April 30, 2025 11:59PM ET.

AI
OpenAI
Technical AI Timelines
AI Impacts
ChatGPT
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opened aṀ1,000 YES at 10% order

@jim Now that’s just predatory

opened a Ṁ10,000 NO at 12% order

what happened to being 12% sure

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 10% order

@Bayesian Keely criterium

bought Ṁ25 YES

@jim Being willing to bet only like 1000 manas at 12% implies a kelly credence of like 12.01%… it lacks conviction

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 12% order

@brod careful, i have inside info on Meta

bought Ṁ2,000 NO

@jim ok understood

@jim not the kind of insider info that makes you more than 15% confident clearly

@brod im trying to get Bayesian's manas but he went to sleep or something

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