Resolution is based on the chatbot arena LLM leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai), specifically the company with the highest Arena Score in the Overall category, without style control or show deprecated, at the end of August 31st, 2025 11:59PM ET.
In the case of a tie, all companies tied for 1st place resolve to equal probability, such that they sum to 100%.
See also:
/Bayesian/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model
/Bayesian/who-will-have-the-best-texttoimage-SO0uN6suuS
/Bayesian/who-will-have-the-best-texttovideo-AtZ0CdIc8Z
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-computer
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-vision-ai-en
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-search-ai-mo
Previous months:
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-I0QsydsZuz
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-0CRdhqptRl
People are also trading

One interesting thing is head-to-head (with style control), GPT-5 losses to Gemini 2.5 about ~66% of the time, which is significant (p<0.05). GPT-5 beats out some other models at a bit higher rate, but not by much. For example, if we look at the rate GPT-5 beats Claude-Sonnet-4-thinking (0.74 with 47 samples) and the rate rate Gemini2.5 beats than Claude-Sonnet-4-thiniing (0.68 with 330 samples), we can note GPT-5 rate is not significantly greater than the Gemini2.5 rate (Fischer exact test p ~= 0.24).
The 21 point ELO with lead style control seems tenuous, and then are tied in ELO without style control. With more data, Gemini could take the lead there.
@sblaplace No, you can have the same ranking but different arena score, and ties refer to arena score ties only
@Bayesian yah it's my reading failure, and for some reason I thought we had all migrated to just whatever the leaderboard says at the end of the month
@Bayesian "without filters" and "without style control" are kind of contradictory, given the default is with style control?
@bens dang i'll make sure to update all the markets to make this clearer. it's meant to track the polymarket market and be without style control, but hm
@Bayesian I mean, I kind of assumed the "without style control" superceded, and I think you can leave it open? but idk
jim order up for OpenAI topping the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard this month
@jacksonpolack , @Bayesian , @SemioticRivalry , @Velaris , @khang2009 , @Gen , @skibidist , @evan , @brod , @100Anonymous , @Ziddletwix ,, @Trazyn , @bagelfan , @geuber , @nikki , @ProjectVictory , @sahaj , @bohaska , @Odoacre
jim orders are large limit orders, generally at better than market prices.
Opt in / opt out thread: https://manifold.markets/post/jim-order-notification-optin-thread