Resolution is based on the chatbot arena LLM leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai), specifically the company with the highest Arena Score in the Overall category without filters (without style control or show deprecated), at the end of June 30, 2025 11:59PM ET.
See also:
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end (resolved)
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-I0QsydsZuz (resolved)
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-0CRdhqptRl (resolved)
/Bayesian/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model
/Bayesian/who-will-have-the-best-texttoimage-SO0uN6suuS
/Bayesian/who-will-have-the-best-texttovideo-AtZ0CdIc8Z
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-computer
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-vision-ai-en
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-search-ai-mo
Update 2025-05-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the 'non style control' (or 'without style control') filter option becomes unavailable on LMArena:
The creator will most probably fall back to the default LMArena filter setting at resolution time. This applies even if this default setting includes style control (contrary to the original description's detail specifying 'without style control').
Alternatively, the market may resolve N/A.
In deciding between these options, the creator will lean towards copying a similar Polymarket market's resolution if ambivalent.
1,000People are also trading
@Wojtek if you wanna fill my orders for Anthropic, Meta and Alibaba, feel free to; they are at 1%
@traders Claude 4 scores are up on LMArena. Without style control, Opus 4 ranked #8 and Sonnet 4 ranked #20. It looks pretty unlikely for Anthropic.
@Bayesian LMArena changed default, so "without filters" now includes style control (see the announcement). "Remove Style Control" is still available for now, but I don't think you can count on it to continue to exist.
@SanghyeonSeo i definitely am counting on it to continue to exist. i would bet on that at 90%+ if you are interested though. i think the spirit of the market is to keep the same settings as previously, and that's what they seem to be doing on polymarket which is basically the same market as this, so i would heavily lean that way, but it definitely is a big problem if they removed non-style-controlled score (it would make a polymarket market with lots of volume be very cursed)