When will Manifold repeat this Sam Altman CEO market mistake?
8
400Ṁ1157
2030
42%
Before 2026
69%
Before 2027
69%
Before 2028
82%
Before 2029
85%
Before 2030
88%
Before 2031

96% -> 0% -> 80% -> 5% -> 95%

If anything as bad happens on a pretty liquid market, where the probability jumps this much from similar extremes over many days, all remaining options resolve YES. If it hasn't happened by an option's date, resolves NO for that option.

If ambiguous, it will resolve according to the judgment of a small group of mods, or similar.

Detailed criteria: (Up to change before the end of march)
- 70%+ swings
- 4+ times
- The swings' high and low points are quantified using the most extreme average over 3 hours. If from 1 to 4 pm it's at 74% on avg, and then from 4 to 8pm it's at 76% on avg, and then it crashes to 1%, it counts as the high being 76%.
- the high and low points of the swings must get 5+ traders to count, non-withstanding obvious market manipulation of this market.
- the market must have a total of 100+ traders at the end of the swings
- the market's swinging option must have at least 1000M in liquidity

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