When will Manifold repeat this Sam Altman CEO market mistake?
Basic
6
Ṁ512
2030
37%
Before H2 2024
61%
Before 2025
70%
Before 2026
78%
Before 2027
78%
Before 2028
82%
Before 2029
85%
Before 2030
88%
Before 2031

96% -> 0% -> 80% -> 5% -> 95%

If anything as bad happens on a pretty liquid market, where the probability jumps this much from similar extremes over many days, all remaining options resolve YES. If it hasn't happened by an option's date, resolves NO for that option.

If ambiguous, it will resolve according to the judgment of a small group of mods, or similar.

Detailed criteria: (Up to change before the end of march)
- 70%+ swings
- 4+ times
- The swings' high and low points are quantified using the most extreme average over 3 hours. If from 1 to 4 pm it's at 74% on avg, and then from 4 to 8pm it's at 76% on avg, and then it crashes to 1%, it counts as the high being 76%.
- the high and low points of the swings must get 5+ traders to count, non-withstanding obvious market manipulation of this market.
- the market must have a total of 100+ traders at the end of the swings
- the market's swinging option must have at least 1000M in liquidity

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7mo

@Bayesian I'm not sure, but the GOAT market for Newton vs Darwin might qualify?

7mo

Hmmmm intuitively it wouldn't bc it's very low liquidity so a swing costs barely 100M which is worth literally 10 cents so really isn't significant. I don't think it fits with the spirit of this market, though if you disagree I welcome you to explain your reasons ig. if it ends up not counting i would consider adding to the description something about how liquidity has to be somewhat significant, because back in the pre-pivot days any active market got injected automatic subsidy that made all big markets highly subsidized, but now this popular market still has massive swings bc no subsidy gets injected anymore, which I had not planned for

7mo

@Bayesian Ah, okay, it also doesn't have 100 traders yet

7mo

I thought the Rafah market was close, but it's only had three swings in the past week instead of four. https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/what-will-happen-first-a-ceasefire?r=VGltb3RoeUpvaG5zb241YzE2

9mo

Should this be a lesson like, never bet a market all the way down to zero?

Are these end-of-year or start-of-year?

9mo

@TheAllMemeingEye good question, I clarified it. By 2024 became "Before 2025" and so on

9mo

Could we have the criteria quantified so that resolution is clear?
how about a >70% swing 4 times?
or a >70% swing 2 times? to make it easier?

9mo

@AmmonLam Yeah this doesn’t seem too hard to quantify. Min # of traders, and min size of swings?

9mo

@Ziddletwix Right, we need min # of traders too.

@Bayesian pinging you again in case you missed this

9mo

@AmmonLam lol i was typing rn

9mo

Yeah I'm thinking about it, my fear of strict criteria is that if it's the wrong criteria it doesn't fit the original intent of the question. I'm trying to ask "will we mess up again in a similar way" and hmm

9mo

so far this is what i got:
70%+ swings 4+ times;

the highs and lows are quantified using the highest average value sustained over 3 hours ig? so like, if the market hangs around 75% on avg for 3hours, that's what counts for the peak of the multi-swing. seems like what i did when eyeballing the values for the altman market

and you need something like 5 traders per high / low for it to count? but also if they're bots or alts to manipulate this market i don't want it to count

any criticism / improvement on the above?

9mo

I think the above looks good. I would add a criteria that the market need to have something like 200 unique traders

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