Will I consider Sam Altman a grifter by the end of 2026?
1k
2027
48%
chance

Sam Altman is the CEO of OpenAI and a former YCombinator president.

Right now, I admire him a lot for succeeding with OpenAI, particularly after the work he has done at YCombinator. It seems he has skill, given he coached many startups, and when he left for the playing field, he crushed it.

On the other hand, his endeavors with Worldcoin are adding some cognitive dissonance. Particularly because he's still pushing this in 2023, after the crypto debacle. One would expect that OpenAI is enough fun for one. The fact he made a world tour is so keen on attaching his own image to OpenAI is also weird to my view of him.

This market resolves to YES if at any point before the end of 2026, I consider him a grifter: someone without ethics, that is trying to get rich quick, that engages in business endeavors knowingly bad, and so on. I consider Elon Musk a grifter, as also the a16z complex, Chamath, Sacks, SBF, and many others.

I won't bet.

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I consider him a grifter: someone without ethics, that is trying to get rich quick, that engages in business endeavors knowingly bad, and so on. I consider Elon Musk a grifter, as also the a16z complex, Chamath, Sacks, SBF, and many others.

Do you believe Elon was trying to "get rich quick" after he already earned a couple hundred million from Paypal & could have retired on a yacht somewhere, but instead put all of it into Tesla & SpaceX?
When I think "get rich quick" I think door-to-door sales, not electric cars & rockets! 2 ventures with notoriously high failure rates.


It's fine to not like people or to disagree with their ethics, political views etc. but very few people truly have "no ethics".

In general, it's easy to spectate & critique others as most of us do. But we should temper our capacity to make value judgments (especially negative judgments) on public figures. Such judgments implicitly assume 1) we can evaluate someone based on headlines, hearsay & other public-facing information. 2) we have the capacity to understand their intentions & evaluate their actions via our superior moral compass 3) we are not falling prey to the many follies of human nature -- envy, cognitive biases etc.

@MP still some cognitive dissonance going for me, but I think I agree with Bucco

sold Ṁ25 of YES

ChatGPT maker OpenAI ousts founder Sam Altman for ‘not being candid’ with board (msn.com)

I wonder what happened. It sounds like he wasn't he wasn't transparent or withheld information.

?

@RobertCousineau what Sama did? This market could resolve to YES soon depending on the informations

predicts YES

@MP We do not know yet; that's why I'm not betting all the way up.

Sam Altman greatness is paying rent

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