(@ Manifold founders: if you think this is worth chasing, I will happily spend at least 20 hours working for/with you to come up with a good market design, and trying to get subsidy-funding.)
At Manifest, Robin Hanson asserted:
There are trillions of dollars of value to be unlocked by better institutional decision-making, e.g. decision markets, e.g. markets on which of various job applicants would be best to hire.
As far as he knows, nobody has even tried.
Manifold is very open to experimentation and very ideologically aligned; I would like to convince them to try this at least once.
Clarifications:
To satisfy this market's condition "Manifold runs a hiring-decision market," the market doesn't need to determine the hiring decision, as with futarchy; it just needs to happen, and the PDF needs to be looked at by the people making the hiring decision.
The decision market does not need to be on Manifold.
On 2025-10-01, I'll ask one of the Manifold big-shots how many new-hire decision markets they ran. This market resolves:
N/A if Manifold ran 0 new-hire decision markets (or if I don't get an answer)
NO if they ran 1-2
YES if they ran 3+
1,000