🐐 Who is Manifold's G.O.A.T.? 🐐 (Final Four)
Mini
132
αΉ€24k
resolved Jun 7
Resolved
YES
Jesus (NO) v Albert Einstein (YES)
Resolved
NO
Isaac Newton (NO) v Charles Darwin (YES)

This market is for the Final Four of Manifold's G.O.A.T. tournament, to determine who advances to the Championship. The purpose of this series of markets is to determine who Manifold thinks is the "Greatest of All Time" (G.O.A.T.).

Resolution Criteria:

Each market will be determined by the greater number of individual holders of either YES or NO at market close. For example, if the market is Winston Churchill (NO) v Pierre-Simon Laplace (YES), Winston Churchill will win if there are 8 individual NO holders, and 7 individual YES holders at the time of market close.

Bot trades do not count towards determining winners.

I will settle any ties, and am happy to offer my opinion on any matchups before the market closes. I am also willing to consider any arguments for/against a contestant before making my decision.

The Final Four and Championship will run over Summer Camp and Manifest.


The scheduled close date for each market of the contest is at 11:59PM CST on the below dates:

Final Four - June 7th
Championship - June 9th



Overall Competition:

/houstonEuler/who-will-win-the-manifold-goat-tour

Previous Rounds:

/houstonEuler/-who-is-manifolds-goat-elite-8-plac

/houstonEuler/-who-is-manifolds-goat-sweet-16-pla

/houstonEuler/-who-is-manifolds-goat-round-of-32

/houstonEuler/who-is-manifolds-goat-round-of-64-p

Nominations here:

/houstonEuler/which-16-philosophy-and-religion-ca
/houstonEuler/which-16-business-and-culture-candi
/houstonEuler/which-16-politics-and-governancecan
/houstonEuler/which-16-science-and-technology-can

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bought αΉ€50 Isaac Newton (NO) v ... NO

Sorry, Just got here, but isn't this voting system kinda unstable? Like, I want to vote for Newton "NO" but as things stand right now i"m likely to loose, so I'm discouraged from doing so. I guess I put 1 mana on "NO"?

@delton yeah to vote, just put 1 mana down, and treat that as a small cost of voting that you might lose.

optionally, you can try to bet bigger in the direction of the winner to "win" some mana. but that's separate from voting.

For the inevitable Newton versus Jesus contest, who is greater – a virgin, or he who was born of one?

@MarkBowen Christians would say Jesus was both.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Good point, I’m going to retreat to a handwavy argument about the wedding supper of the Lamb being situated outside of spacetime? Would that work?

What’s the analogy to consummation between Christ and his church?

Who is greater? The guy who gave us nukes, or your GigaChad savior?

It is incomprehensible to me how Newton is more GOATed than Darwin. Is Manifold inhabited entirely by glue sniffers?!

@EugeneBixby after due consideration, it has become aparent to me that this market is, in fact, FIXED! These so called speculators, have no interest in Newton, in so far as he is a weak opponent to that of Einstein. Yes folks, you heard me correctly, these Newtonian influencers have no goal than to secure an Einsteinian victory. They KNOW that Newton is weak, dare I say not GOATed in the slightest! This charade, well it has been played, is nothing but that. They fear the potential battle that would insue if Einstein were to battle against the epic character of Darwin and his many such accomplishments. I, on this day June 4th, declare we must end this falsehood! Resolve these markets N/A and force the individuals to bet either or, you can not and should not play both sides of the final four, for you too easily allow the game tk be rigged. HERE HERE /j

Jesus: An anti imperialist whose greatest accomplishment was dying, his name was later used in support of every western imperialist program including that of Rome, the imperium he resisted. All of his beliefs, his name, and his values have been subverted in a death so total that his popularity itself can be thought of as a burial a million miles deep in lies.

as much as i like jesus, one must sometimes abandon one’s principles and agree to blame all european wars on jesus

@Bayesian indeed, we should all abandon our principles and agree to treat Jesus as the scapeGOAT that he is

@ForTruth Girardian, even

I'm pretty happy with these 4 men as our final four!

As cool as Newton is, I think Darwin is much more goated. Newton was good at solving hard technical problems in domains which are "technically clear" (i.e. quite amenable to mathematical formalization). When his interests moved to more "technically clouded" domains, the quality of his insights dropped dramatically (who cares about his occult studies?).

On the other hand, Darwin perceived a very powerful technical insight into a domain which is very "technically clouded". His ability to perceive true patterns in such domains was quite impressive and plausibly unparalleled -- and he does not seem to have "fallen off" at any point in his life. (All the more impressive considering how shocking and controversial his ideas were and still are.) Additionally, he was a kind and empathetic man in both his personal life and in his societal-political views (something I think only Jesus had in common, of these).

Maybe we should give Einstein a vote:

β€œNo one can read the Gospelswithout feeling the actual presence of Jesus. His personality pulsates in every word. No myth is filled with such life.” β€” Einstein at the the Kisma conference

Then we can ask Jesus what he thought about Einstein. Does anyone actually think he has even heard of the guy?

now that it's almost tied (not quite, because bots don't count & there's at least one sus jesus voter), tbh the most fitting end to this poll would be for jesus to be in the lead & then betrayed by vote switching at the last minute

Jesus was down bigly (dozen+ votes) and has clawed back to life over the past 3 days. Not the first time he's pulled that particular trick...

God is springing alts from the underworld

(tbc i don't think this is a big thing this time from a broad sweep, but still concerning for self-resolving polls on manifold)

@Bayesian uh oh @houstonEuler . better investigate. track down some staff & have them look up this felon

false votes for jesus is a minor form of heresy

@Ziddletwix Is it? I thought that was practically part of the religion, since none of the gospels were written by any of the actual apostles.

Apparently it’s a myth that jesus is the son of god. Do u wanna support a fraud? Yeah I don’t either. Also this is a hard pill to swallow but this may be one of the rare cases where a worldclass wordcel (darwin) is cooler than a worldclass shape rotator (newton). Newton didn’t come up with an alternative explanation to intelligent design, darwin did. Also darwin = biology = goats, so i think that makes everyone’s choice simple.

bought αΉ€100 Isaac Newton (NO) v ... YES

@Bayesian this man spittin πŸ’―πŸ’―πŸ”₯πŸ”₯

@Bayesian Prediction markets disagree. If you think he’s never coming back, bet your beliefs imo:

/anyekwest/when-will-jesus-christ-return-the-s

@Bayesian

Also darwin = biology = goats, so i think that makes everyone’s choice simple.

bit of a stretch. OTOH, Newton grew up on a farm, raising goats with his mother Hannnah Ayscough

Jesus, of course, is literally referred to as the Good Shepherd, due to the wide consensus of his GOAT status confirmed in the council of Sugma, held in 690AD. He also goes by the name β€œthe lamb of god”, which was a mistranslation of the Ancient Greek for β€œthe goat of god.

Those connections seem much more persuasive to me

bought αΉ€1 Jesus (NO) v Albert ... NO

@Ziddletwix

Now that you mention it, Jesus was literally the greatest scapeGOAT of all time...

You've persuaded me to change my vote.