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Unless otherwise specified:
"Trump bans" refers to Trump or the US government, but actions, like "Trump says X" refers only to Trump. I expect the intent to be pretty clear. (If not, I reserve the right to modify the phrasing to make it clearer; ping me if you find an option unclear)
"Trump" refers to the person that was president of the US in 2017-2021.
If something is not known to have happened, unless otherwise specified, it would resolve NO. For example, the option "Trump gets COVID" resolves NO unless it is announced or sufficiently confirmed, despite the possibility that he gets covid without announcing it. The intent here is to resolve YES when the balance of evidence clearly indicates the option prediction happened.
"Trump's Second Term" is the time between Jan 20 2025 and Jan 20 2029, so long as the US continues to exist and Republicans remain in power in the White House. Trump dying doesn't end Trump's Second Term for the purposes of this market.
I reserve the right to cancel any option that doesn't seem relevant / unconnected to trump / etc. If a question is ambiguous, please ping the question creator for clarification. If they don't clarify within a few days, ping me and I'll decide how it's disambiguated.
Consensus of credible reporting will be used for this market's resolution. I am not following Trump's every move so I'd very much appreciate @s when options need to be resolved.
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Requiring federal employees to come to the office five days a week would result in a wave of voluntary terminations that we welcome:
@WesReisen low liquidity market, you can move it by like 40% with 100 mana
@WesReisen well it moves so much on each new trade that it just represents the opinion of the last person trading basically
@WesReisen this has a official definition: https://diplomacy.state.gov/encyclopedia/breaking-relations/#:~:text=The%20formal%20act%20of%20severing,only%20done%20under%20severe%20situations
Can be stated as such by the government directly or indirectly by closing one's diplomatic mission, and demanding the other country do the same. Obviously only counts for this bet it there are existing dimplomatic relations beforehand
@SteveSokolowski elected as in wins the next primary and general election after Donald Trump or elected as in Trump dies and he takes over?
@Enlil will black people committing assault and looting stores be considered protest? Sad we have to ask this but you know we do
@FriendlyMerc IMO the difference will be somewhat subjective. Here in Portland during BLM unrest the vast majority of people involved were peaceful, several of them people I used to work with. However, obviously not everyone was. In fact it seems like we have a small group of shitheads who come out at every protest to vandalize stuff. IMO if the majority is peaceful it's a protest. Otherwise it's a riot. It might also depend on who is the target of the violence. Is it indiscriminately used against everyone in the larger group or only against the people who vandalize stuff or become violent themselves?
@FriendlyMerc why did you feel the need to specify the race? The comment is otherwise a valid question but that reeks of fash dogwhistling
@Rolledupaces Does this resolve YES if Gaetz is appointed by recess, or only if his appointment is confirmed by the Senate?
@SteveSokolowski No, no, no. Petition for this to be strictly non-financial market items otherwise this will get ridiculous.
@Predictor further petition for this to be solely focused on the actions of trump and his administration