Will Donald Trump remain de facto leader of the United States beyond the end of his second term?
51
1kṀ12k
2029
10%
chance

Lots of possible edge cases here so this is going to be a judgement call to some extent. But here are some examples which may clarify the intent:

Resolves yes if:

  • There is a constitutional amendment allowing Trump to have a third term as President

  • Trump dissolves the office of President and functionally becomes dictator-for-life

  • Someone else is elected President on a platform of "doing exactly what Trump says" and effectively becomes a figurehead for Trump.

Resolves no if:

  • Trump peacefully transfers power to another presidential candidate who acts independently from him

  • Trump attempts to remain in office but his authority is not recognized by other branches of government

  • A substantial portion of the United States secedes

  • Update 2024-10-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Having the same policies as Trump or seeking his advice is not sufficient for a YES resolution

    • The elected president must be following Trump's orders on all policy decisions to the extent that Trump's power over the country would be similar to if he were actually president

  • Update 2025-03-01 (PST): - Retains control of a majority of the other powers of the presidency, such as:

    • Commanding the military

    • Issuing executive orders and having them take effect (AI summary of creator comment)

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