Will Donald Trump remain de facto leader of the United States beyond the end of his second term?
Plus
35
Ṁ44392029
18%
chance
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1W
1M
ALL
Lots of possible edge cases here so this is going to be a judgement call to some extent. But here are some examples which may clarify the intent:
Resolves yes if:
There is a constitutional amendment allowing Trump to have a third term as President
Trump dissolves the office of President and functionally becomes dictator-for-life
Someone else is elected President on a platform of "doing exactly what Trump says" and effectively becomes a figurehead for Trump.
Resolves no if:
Trump peacefully transfers power to another presidential candidate who acts independently from him
Trump attempts to remain in office but his authority is not recognized by other branches of government
A substantial portion of the United States secedes
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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