This market asks which scenario will occur by December 31, 2025, regarding President Trump's tariff policies and economic outcomes.

Definitions:

• Recession: Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth

• Removal of tariffs: Tariffs reduced to well below 10% for most countries, effectively ending the trade war

The market will resolve to the option that occurs by the end of 2025. Notice that none of these scenarios have probability equal to zero and their probabilities sum up to one, so the market is complete.

Resolution will be based on official GDP data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) and tariff policies as documented by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (https://ustr.gov/).