China-Taiwan military clash when?
16
1.1kṀ4838
2026
2%
before March 2025
4%
before April 2025
6%
before May 2025
7%
before June 2025
8%
before July 2025
8%
before August 2025
9%
before September 2025
9%
before October 2025
10%
before November 2025
10%
before December 2025
15%
before 2026

Options in this market resolve YES if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) before the date described by the option.

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.

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