Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES only if:

• Chinese and Japanese military or paramilitary forces (PLA, JMSDF/JGSDF/JASDF, China Coast Guard, Japan Coast Guard) engage in direct armed or physical confrontation, and

• At least one person from one side is physically injured or killed by the actions of the other side.

Cross-party requirement:

• Injuries or deaths must be caused by the opposing side.

• Friendly fire, accidents, or self-induced injuries do not count.

Qualifying actions:

• Weapons fire that hits personnel, vessels, or aircraft of the other side

• Vessel/aircraft collisions caused by the other side

• Physical altercations (boarding, detentions, scuffles) causing injury to the other side

Non-qualifying actions:

• Warning shots into air/water

• Water cannons, lasers, jamming, radar lock-ons without injury

• Property damage only

• Near-misses or unsafe maneuvers without injury

• Injuries caused by the same side (friendly fire, collision between same-nation vessels)

• Pure saber-rattling or diplomatic escalations

Injury Definition:

A bodily harm requiring medical treatment, confirmed by credible reporting.

Verification:

Must be confirmed by:

• Japan MoD

• China MoD

• Major outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, etc.) citing official or on-record sources.

If no qualifying cross-party injury/death occurs by Dec 31, 2025 (JST), resolves NO.