When will the AfD be the largest party in Germany according to polls?
36
1kṀ11kresolved Apr 22
100%99.0%
Q2 2025
0.2%
Q3 2025
0.2%
Q4 2025
0.1%
Q1 2026
0.1%
Q2 2026
0.1%
Q3 2026
0.1%
Q4 2026
0.2%
not before 2027
https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
Only FORSA & INSA counts
Update 2025-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Tiebreaker Rule Clarification:
A scenario where there is a draw (i.e., the AfD ties with another party in the polls) will not count as the AfD being the largest party.
Update 2025-04-08 (PST): - CDU/CSU counting: The CDU/CSU alliance is counted as a single party when determining which party is the largest according to the polls. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-04-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Update:
If the AfD leads in FORSA but not in INSA (or vice versa), the market will resolve to yes.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ986 | |
| 2 | Ṁ745 | |
| 3 | Ṁ475 | |
| 4 | Ṁ332 | |
| 5 | Ṁ167 |
People are also trading
Related questions
When will the AfD be the largest party in Germany according to polls? V2
Will AfD become the biggest party in the following german elections
41% chance
Will the Alternative for Germany become the biggest party in the 2029 German Bundestag elections?
40% chance
Will Alternative for Germany (AfD) be part of the German government by 2026?
1% chance
Will AfD get 21+% in 2029 German Federal Elections?
60% chance
Will the German political party AfD (right to far-right) get over 35% of the votes in the next election?
20% chance
Will AfD win absolute majority in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?
12% chance
Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?
59% chance
Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
15% chance
WIll AfD be part of a federal governing coalition in Germany by 2030?
31% chance