Will the US Treasury issue a new General License authorizing broad oil operations in Venezuela in 2026?
4
Ṁ100Ṁ49Dec 31
64%
chance
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Resolution Criteria:
Yes: If OFAC issues a General License (GL) that explicitly supersedes or expands beyond the narrow scope of General License 41 (which currently restricts Chevron's profits to debt repayment).
Yes: If the specific sanctions prohibiting US persons from dealing with PDVSA (E.O. 13850) are formally lifted or suspended.
No: If only "Specific Licenses" (case-by-case private permissions) are granted to individual companies like Exxon or ConocoPhillips without a public General License.
I intend to resolve in the spirit of the question in case of gray area. I will not bet in this market to remain as objective as possible. If necessary, I reserve the right to resolve to a PROB or to my best judgment at the end of the year.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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