Will North Korea collapse before the end of 2025?
Will North Korea collapse before the end of 2025?
28
1kṀ2243
Dec 31
5%
chance

This question seeks to predict the political and socio-economic stability of North Korea, specifically focusing on whether the country will experience a collapse of its current regime or governmental structure before the end of the year 2025. For the purposes of this question, "collapse" is defined as a significant and observable breakdown in the current governing framework, which could manifest in several ways, including but not limited to:

  • Major Overhaul in Leadership: A complete change in the top leadership, not following the established line of succession, due to internal upheaval, coup, revolution, or other extraordinary political changes.

  • Severe Economic Breakdown: A catastrophic economic failure that leads to a breakdown of internal order, resulting in a humanitarian crisis or necessitating international intervention.

  • Large-scale Civil Unrest: Widespread civil disorder or an uprising that effectively disrupts the current governmental control and leads to a change in the regime.

  • External Intervention: An intervention by foreign powers that significantly alters or displaces the current governmental structure.



Criteria for Resolution:

The question will resolve as "Yes" if, before the end of December 31, 2025, there is verifiable and widely recognised evidence of a collapse as defined above. This could be through international media reports, official statements from global governments or international organisations, or any other reliable source of global news.

The question will resolve as "No" if North Korea maintains its current governmental structure and no significant collapse, as defined above, occurs by the end of the specified period.

Here is the same question with the year deadline of 2030:

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:
predictedYES

Hi,
Here is some update on the question:
I have created a new question(Will North Korea collapse before the end of 2030?)
https://manifold.markets/Latte_Horse/will-north-korea-collapse-before-th?r=TGF0dGVfSG9yc2U
I have added to the description of the question.
Thank you for participating!

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules