Will Lex Fridman create a market on Manifold by the end of 2023?

Manifold Business Future•Lex Fridman•Manifold Adoption

146

809

Ṁ370K

Ṁ1.9K

resolved Jun 8

Resolved

YES

ALL

Resolves YES if confirmed that Lex Fridman created a market on Manifold by end of 2023.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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#	Name	Total profit
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2		Ṁ729
3		Ṁ667
4		Ṁ487
5		Ṁ245

28 Comments

97 Holders

704 Trades

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predicted NO

@MichaelWheatley Verified

predicted NO

Mira speculates someone fooled the site admins.

predicted NO

@MichaelWheatley We know that account was created in association with @Aella interview. So I don’t understand the reasoning?

predicted NO

@BTE I bought 20,000 YES shares; you'll have to take it up with Mira.

predicted NO

@MichaelWheatley LOL!! Nice! You said it all with that bet!!

predicted YES

wake up, notice Lex's market and this market trading at 99%, place Ṁ500 bet

easiest Ṁ5 I ever made, gotta celebrate these tiny wins

@42irrationalist Profit is a habit :)

bought Ṁ20 of NO

Lol, imagine not placing a small bet in NO here.

bought Ṁ5 of NO

How do we know it's the real lex?

predicted YES

@fiddledidee

bought Ṁ500 of YES

@fiddledidee His email has been verified by manifold admins. So specifically: https://manifold.markets/CarsonGale/will-i-be-convinced-that-the-manifo?r=UHNldWRvbnltb3VzQWx0#h42LTxIkqWvFdN03IiF4

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

See also the more ambitious version:

And give your insights on Lex's market!

Lex here. I just created my first market: https://manifold.markets/LexFridman/will-lex-fridman-interview-vladimir-0cc5888760ac

Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?

50% chance.

bought Ṁ1,500 of YES

@LexFridman Welcome to Manifold :)

predicted NO

@LexFridman Great to have you here!

bought Ṁ2 of YES

What is love, he asks with glee
Soon he'll see, a trading spree
On Manifold's new market floor
Lex Fridman trades -> like a whore

bought Ṁ100 of NO

What fraction of new users are active on manifold after a week?

Since December 2022, it has hardly crossed 30%, mostly in the 20s though occasionally lower, so i don't get why this market keeps trading above 40

bought Ṁ30 of NO

Why is this so high? @LexFridman joined manifold, perhaps around the time of a possible episode recording, made two trades on markets mentioning him, and has been inactive since. Why has this market been above 75% for so long?

predicted NO

@firstuserhere one could argue there is a whole 11 months left

predicted YES

@firstuserhere also this

predicted NO

@PatrickDelaney the retention rate hovers around 50% after a month has passed

predicted YES

@firstuserhere Lex bought shares in the fact that he'd make a market

predicted NO

@DesTiny let's see if/when that podcast comes out. If he bet during a podcast just to play around, then it doesn't mean much

predicted NO

@firstuserhere and i think this market should converge to resemble that retention rate eventually

predicted YES

@firstuserhere that could be true, but I think he'd atleast read what the market was about, or maybe he specifically did that to trick people and it's shown in the podcast. idk

predicted NO

@DesTiny To @firstuserhere 's poin if he bet on himself on a whim as a quick way to try out Manifold, he holds absolutely no value in his mind to his free internet points because he effectively left the platform.