Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Manifold Markets

hmmm is this the real @lexfridman? Doing some insidoooor trading are we? We are on to you!! https://manifold.markets/CarsonGale/will-i-be-convinced-that-the-manifo P.S. we hope you love our site as much as we love your content! ❤ https://t.co/NDCD5r6cGB

Related https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/who-will-be-the-most-twitterfollowe

@GustavoMafra My theory is that @LexFridman is a fake account made to (successfully) manipulate that market

@BrendanFinan I was thinking that too but two Manifold founders are betting Yes here on pretty high probability, maybe they have some information that we don't

@GustavoMafra yeah I'm guessing they looked to see what Google account created @LexFridman

@BrendanFinan haha guilty as charged

@Austin xd same

@DavidChee although he doesn't actually have an email listed anywhere online that I could find, so can't be 100% sure it is him.

There is an email listed here:
https://podhero.com/podcast/71122/lex-fridman-podcast
https://faculty.coe.drexel.edu/sweber/students.html

@GustavoMafra oh...

👀

@GustavoMafra Email matches. It's him.

Ok, I'll plan on resolving yes by EOD unless anyone gives me reason to believe otherwise.

@SG Cool!

If you're not convinced either way, will you resolve it NO or N/A?

@StevenK n/a

@CarsonGale Feel like it should resolve NO if so? How could you be convinced that it’s not him?

@Charlie very easily - most parody accounts tend to be identified pretty early.

That said, looking back I think the language in the original question more clearly implied a "no" resolution if I'm not convinced. If I was repeating this market, I would make it more clear. As it is, it seems like this market will be more or less done & dusted.