Will resolve early if I am reasonably convinced in either direction.
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Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Manifold Markets
hmmm is this the real @lexfridman? Doing some insidoooor trading are we? We are on to you!! https://manifold.markets/CarsonGale/will-i-be-convinced-that-the-manifo P.S. we hope you love our site as much as we love your content! ❤ https://t.co/NDCD5r6cGB
@GustavoMafra My theory is that @LexFridman is a fake account made to (successfully) manipulate that market
@BrendanFinan I was thinking that too but two Manifold founders are betting Yes here on pretty high probability, maybe they have some information that we don't
@DavidChee although he doesn't actually have an email listed anywhere online that I could find, so can't be 100% sure it is him.
There is an email listed here:
https://podhero.com/podcast/71122/lex-fridman-podcast
https://faculty.coe.drexel.edu/sweber/students.html
@Charlie very easily - most parody accounts tend to be identified pretty early.
That said, looking back I think the language in the original question more clearly implied a "no" resolution if I'm not convinced. If I was repeating this market, I would make it more clear. As it is, it seems like this market will be more or less done & dusted.