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Will Clarence Thomas leave the supreme court before 2025?
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resolved Jan 2
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NO
US Politics
Gerontocracy
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2023/04/16/clarence-thomas-ginger-financial-disclosure/

predictedNO
predictedNO

Related market: https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-samuel-alito-leave-the-supreme

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

Actuarial tables give him a ~78% chance of surviving until then and once you condition on his social class and current state of health it's probably higher than that.

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