
Will Clarence Thomas leave the supreme court before 2025?
25
1kṀ5822resolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ202 | |
2 | Ṁ18 | |
3 | Ṁ11 | |
4 | Ṁ11 | |
5 | Ṁ8 |
Sort by:
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
Actuarial tables give him a ~78% chance of surviving until then and once you condition on his social class and current state of health it's probably higher than that.
Related questions
Related questions
Will Clarence Thomas retire from the Supreme Court before 2029?
56% chance
Will Clarence Thomas break the record for longest tenured US Supreme Court Justice?
49% chance
Will any sitting Supreme Court justice leave before 2027?
75% chance
Which SCOTUS justice will be the first to leave the bench?
Will a Supreme Court Justice retire or be replaced for any reason by the end of 2026?
45% chance
Which Justices will cease to be members of the US Supreme Court before the end of 2025?
If Trump wins, will both Alito and Thomas retire from the supreme Court before the end of his term?
45% chance
Will Congress confirm a Supreme Court justice in 2025?
36% chance
Will a liberal justice leave the Supreme Court during Trump's presidential term?
39% chance
Will Clarence Thomas rule with the Majority on Jack Smith's Supreme Court petition to see if Donald Trump has immunity?
56% chance