Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
What will cause the next Supreme Court vacancy?
23
Ṁ1kṀ4.7k
2032
Resignation84%

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will any sitting Supreme Court justice leave before 2027?
25% chance
Whose departure will cause the next vacant U.S. Supreme Court seat ?
Who will be the next person appointed as a Supreme Court Justice in the USA?
Who will be the next person appointed to the Supreme Court of the United States?
Will a Supreme Court Justice die, retire or be replaced for any reason by the end of 2026?
25% chance
Who will be the next member of the Supreme Court to vacate the bench?
Who will the next SCOTUS Justice to leave the court be?
Will the next justice to leave the Supreme Court be a conservative?
82% chance
Which Supreme Court Justice will retire or die next?
Who will be the next justice confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?
Sort by:
bought Ṁ5 YES

If it's caused by resignation, than it's almost certain that a Republican will appoint the replacement.

Expansion?

bought Ṁ10 NO

Damn forgot about impeachment…

bought Ṁ10 NO

@BTE Could group that with resignation and not change the odds

People are also trading

Will any sitting Supreme Court justice leave before 2027?
-5% 1d25% chance
Whose departure will cause the next vacant U.S. Supreme Court seat ?
Who will be the next person appointed as a Supreme Court Justice in the USA?
Who will be the next person appointed to the Supreme Court of the United States?
Will a Supreme Court Justice die, retire or be replaced for any reason by the end of 2026?
25% chance
Who will be the next member of the Supreme Court to vacate the bench?
Who will the next SCOTUS Justice to leave the court be?
Will the next justice to leave the Supreme Court be a conservative?
82% chance
Which Supreme Court Justice will retire or die next?
Who will be the next justice confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?