Manifest is in just over a week: https://manifest.is/

Manifest 2025

A festival for forecasting, markets, AI, and novel ideas. June 6-8, 2025 in Berkeley, California.

Some people are still on the fence about getting tickets, and they're pretty pricey at this point in time. While I still think it's a great deal (look at all the awesome folks who are coming, and all the rave reviews from last year!), I want to make sure price isn't a blocker for any great people out there.

So: I'm hosting a small prize competition! If you'd like to win a free Manifest 2025 ticket (currently valued at $730), submit a market you've created. I'm looking to reward things that eg:

• Have interesting market structures

• Cover unusual or important topics, particularly thoughtfully

• Were notable, esp in the wider world

• Provided a lot of joy to their traders and viewers

For reference, I've started this with 4 examples of markets I've loved (and I believe @tftftftftftftftftftftftf and @crowlsyong are both coming to Manifest 2025!).

Rules:

• Up to 2 submissions per user

• You can submit existing markets, or markets that you've created for this prize

• You can submit markets on somebody else's behalf (they get the ticket if it wins)

• I expect to be the main judge, but other Manifold or Manifest ppl may weigh in, or unilaterally hand out free tickets

• We'll plan on awarding at least 1 free ticket, but happy to do more (eg 3-5) if there are enough great submissions

• Entries close Sun 6/1 EOD, and I expect all winners will have been chosen by Mon

(I'll plan to resolve my 4 original submissions to 50%)

• Update 2025-05-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For an entry (a submitted market) to resolve to YES in this market, the creator of that submitted market must meet all of the following conditions:

  • Be offered a free Manifest 2025 ticket by the judge (this market's creator) or the Manifest team.

  • Accept the free ticket.

  • Actually attend Manifest 2025.