Now that this is never gonna resolve I just wanna know @Spin ’s ideology here… my calculations fell much more in the lower buckets

@bens [Insert respectful but neutral comment about how Spin defaulted on my loan to them here.]

@bens I think we have over 4 years to resolve still!

@bens Also don't over-adjust to what one person predicts! Remember, the power of wisdom of the crowd relies upon the crowd not turning into sheep. This market may have over-adjusted to what a few people posted about.

To anybody who has the resources to accurately model the jar, there is a lot of mana to be won if you are sure of your methods.

Perhaps you can goad a counterparty to play against you too. Charisma check!

@Eliza hmm ya I assumed they must have had some professional way of estimating the beans or something, since I’m assuming there are ppl who do that at a professional level, but now I’m doubting that… regardless I’m already over-leveraged in this market which may never resolve and don’t feel inclined to correct the odds

@bens I'm in that same boat. I'm quite happy making the 0% daily loan number go up, but I don't want to risk much more of my net worth on a single market outcome.

@bens Similarly I feel like I got my mana in at a good spot and don't want to be buying and selling all the waves. Maybe everyone just feels like they're happy where they are.

@bens They are so close to talking about prediction markets...!

I've given up all hope.

@bens Yeah, I'm feeling like they may have abandoned it too, but I'll never know. You don't know how many times I've had to drop everything to watch a Veritasium video because of a subscription notification.

The 2030 kill switch is still there as our fail safe.

I don't think there are beans in today's video.

I also realized the link in the description to the community post broke. I fixed it on both markets.

Man, I sure hope they didn't drop this topic. That's a lot of mana to vault up for 4 or 5 years.

We want beans!

Related: https://manifold.markets/khang2009/will-manifold-be-mentioned-in-the-v

New video! Reviewing...

I'm seeing "law of large numbers" stuff in the first few minutes. This could be our video. However, I'm working at the moment, and I'll review this video in full after I am off hours.

If this is it, feel free to reply the time stamp of where the beans answer is to expedite resolution.

https://youtu.be/KZeIEiBrT_w?si=OwlengaCORqfX036

Nope! False alarm! No beans in that video!

I want to know...

@bens I do too, friend.

@bens Retr0id made a market for you! Link below.

/retr0id/when-will-we-know-the-veritasium-be

Halting trades to review the newly released video.

I'm a little busy right now, but I've skimmed the video. I'm convinced that the bean count is not in this video. Reopening shortly...