@zn_bot Whoever is piloting this bot, you're doing God's work.

How can we exploit it? 🤔

@Quroe I like it because it's filling my limit orders slowly but surely :D

@Spin 'Ope! I think somebody cracked it.

Red, Orange, Yellow, Green, Purple

Are these Starburst jelly beans? The colors look wrong in the video, but it's the right set of colors.

I had ruled this out yesterday, but now I'm doubting.

Wait, did someone say this was done in the Netherlands? I bet the have laws about food dyes that make the colors look different than I'm used to.

@robm Right here.

@Quroe they look pretty small and bean shaped compared to those and I see no evidence of printed text. The Netherlands thing is conjecture, the guy could be anywhere in the world.

@Eliza I do agree that the colors of these are very close. But the number of colors is suspicious. (And I think the shape/size is different)

I would also advise that we not bother Casper with this market. This market is entirely separate from the Veritasium enterprise, and I don't want to give them an excuse to tell me to take this market down.

My guess was 1695.

mine was 1741

Opened a M2000 order for 1750-1899 at 17% 23% if anybody is interested.

@Spin @robm

1498

My jar contains 1230 beans.

Is it the same jar? Is it just as full? Are the beans the same size?

Do what you want with the info. I've placed my bets.

Either way I now have 2kg of jelly beans, so I'm winning this market.

@robm what is the liquid volume of your jar?

@Eliza it's labeled as 1.5 liter.

Just to clear up ambiguity for other traders, the jar pictured above is NOT the standard this market resolves to.

@robm

Units in my annotations are image pixels, after I scaled the two to be what I deemed a visually identical jelly bean scale. Modelling both jars as cuboids:

1230*((198*198*364)/(162*162*290)) ~= 2306

@retr0id Ooo, I might be on the money.

@retr0id The original guess I had in my head (and the one I submitted on the site) was 2,300. This gives me the "confirmation bias tingles."

@retr0id this is the first post to make me nervous

I know how many beans are in this jar.

The gauntlet has been thrown down.

@Quroe you put up the subsidy. How do you want me to reveal my number?

@robm I will managram you M100 for advanced knowledge of how many beans are in your jar (i.e. before anyone else gets told)

@robm Present it in the market above with your trades. 😉

You don't know how badly I'm contemplating throwing my entire account balance against you.

@robm You get the subsidy by winning this market.

@Quroe do it

10k limit order open in the other market

@robm I placed a limit order for 900M at 16%, lmk if u want more

@Spin I'd take another 5k at that. Order open, 1h.

@robm I think I'll accept your challenge. I call your methodology into question. See my markups, and compare to the demonstration material.

@Quroe 9x9x18, so 1458? I don't even see you holding shares of that bin. I'm confused.

Let me know what you want. I'm betting heavily based on my number.

@robm he is implying that your jar is smaller or your beans are bigger than the example jar.

@robm You're correct. I think that's what your guess is based on the method I'm using.

@robm sold almost everything to place 1k at 15%. the future of my manifold account hinges completely on this market 💀

@TheAllMemeingEye I might want to take a loan. Can you write up a line of credit?

/TheAllMemeingEye/-the-all-memeing-bank-will-i-lend-m

@Quroe whoa wait loans are a thing? @TheAllMemeingEye I would like a loan of 2k please :D (will pay 50% interest)

@crowlsyong I have potential customers for you. Do your elevator pitch.

@Spin You know what? I'll take you up on that.

I would be willing to open a line of credit with you up to Ṁ5k for one month, and you pay me back 1.5x that amount in 1 month from the date of the loan.

@crowlsyong Can you confirm the price of a C_100 policy on that? If it's agreeable, which of the two of us pays the fee? Me, or Spin?

@Quroe seen. Let me get back to you, running errands right now 🍒🍓🍑🍑🍑

@Quroe lucky you, I just lowered the fees across the board! I would have cost over 640 mana before the update, but now it only costs 340! @Spin some users offer loans, I offer insurance on loans. So if borrower defaults, I pay the lender according to the policy they purchased. :)
Quroe if you think this rate is good and want to get a policy, send funds to the /crowlsyong/risk-payment-portal

@Spin Name/confirm how big you want your loan to be, and it will be done.

@Quroe 2000 is good; will pay you after this market resolves

@Spin Wait, that's not how I interpreted that. But... I'm game. I'll send you a Ṁ10 managram with a note updating the due date. Please send Ṁ10 back with the memo "confirm".

@Quroe done! also i should've clarified that i meant i'll pay you back whichever comes first (market resolution or 1 month)

@Spin Oh, it's whatever. 😊 I think the return on that loan is worth it for me either way. We'll go with market resolution as the due date, but I won't stop you if you want to pay it back early.