I'm not a believer :)

@chilli

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf why are you on Manifold now!!! Get off before it's too late!!!

We may not even know who won for 2 weeks!

Update: I am pretty sure I can accomplish this challenge, after making extensive preparations. I got essential groceries, earplugs, and have meticulously muted specific slack channels and blocked email words related to the election result.

I totally forgot that i signed up for a silent meditation retreat in Mexico from the 12th through the 20th of November, so I just have to make it to the 12th (8 days) without finding out. I think this really improves my odds of success. Additionally I don’t have any mandatory meetings the rest of this week.

I have notified my close friends and family but I think that my family will probably forget, so I blocked my family group chat for the next week, hope they survive.

I read like 40 hrs of content on my phone each week. Ideally I would read books or write, but just in case I printed out like 100 pages of substacks to read (semianalysis, acx, marginal revolution). I am a realist, so I printed out 500 pages of bookmarked tweets. As a last resort, downloaded also 3 gigabytes of Twitter feed to html using the singlepage chrome extension (3 million or so tweets).

Short form video is also something I really like tonight I am trying to figure out how to download some of that.

In the immediate aftermath of the election I think if there is a definitive result there will be hooligans and people howling in the street so I am gonna be out of the city till at least 1am at an undisclosed secluded coastal location.

I think going to the airport is gonna be really hard. My current plan is to use these super powerful earplugs I purchased and very very dark sunglasses. I am

familiar with the terminal and where the newsstands are. I will film myself going through the airport — just in case any bettors are suspicious.

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf the binder of tweets is cracking me up

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf Flipping to Yes, don't let me down.

@Joshua thanks for your support!

@benshindel it’s so much paper!

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf Still buying no, but I am in awe! I want you to prove me wrong.

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf Inspiring stuff! Consider headphones on top of earplugs with a downloaded podcast to drown out other conversations. You could also consider reading glasses to make it harder to read far-away newspapers, but this could be a terrible idea (definitely stop if your eyes start hurting).

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf How is your resolve (EDIT: determination) right now?

@satchlj No, it is too soon. 2 weeks after the election.

@Predictor They mean "resolve" as in "willpower", "determination".

@MugaSofer yeah lol poor word choice. Willpower.

@satchlj Resolve super strong, just making last minute preparations before locking down.

Bought a tiny YES share because I believe in you

Not voting on this because I truly have no idea, but one thing I think will be hard to account for is those spam texts the parties are sending to so many ppl asking ppl to take action or give money relating to something. Also definitely turn your news app notifications off lol

gl

I'm curious in which scenario you are more likely to pull this off, so I made a market https://manifold.markets/ADings/conditional-on-tbtbtb-finding-out-a?play=true

(It's set up the other way around - if you DON'T pull it off, who is more likely to have won - so that the N/A option is less likely)

How will it resolve in a scenario like 2000, where the winner was not clear until more than 2 weeks after the election?

@bluefrog It will resolve 2 weeks after November 4th, regardless of outcome.

Secondary market about how I find out about the election if I fail at this market https://manifold.markets/tftftftftftftftftftftftf/if-i-find-out-who-won-the-election

Update: To prevent interested parties from spoiling the results for me, i am going to lock down my phone and use only my HAM radio at an undisclosed frequency with a small circle of trustworthy individuals. For work slack i will only look at DMs, Tags, and github.

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf for how long?

@JaimeSantaCruz 2 weeks. I gotta get my license tho

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf don’t know how difficult is to get licensed but sounds more plausible

Technician license is pretty easy. You need some basic physics/electronics knowledge (ohm's law; frequency = c / wavelength [edited to correct this, lol]) and some familiarity with radio stuff. The question pool is public, so you can just practice until you're confident you'll pass.

(though I'm curious why you have a radio already without a license)

Noodling on the ham bands seems like a terrible way to avoid politics...