I really think i can do it.
I will stop listening to podcasts and following polls 5 weeks (October 1) before the election. I will pause my twitter. I will tell my coworkers and family not to tell me and avoid looking at newspapers. I will not watch any TV. I will not turn on the radio. I will camp for the night of the election outside of the very blue city where I live so I don’t hear celebrations. I will work from home for 3-4 business days after the election. I will not look at YouTube or tiktok.
Not betting in this market so I am not biased.
I'm curious in which scenario you are more likely to pull this off, so I made a market https://manifold.markets/ADings/conditional-on-tbtbtb-finding-out-a?play=true
(It's set up the other way around - if you DON'T pull it off, who is more likely to have won - so that the N/A option is less likely)
Secondary market about how I find out about the election if I fail at this market https://manifold.markets/tftftftftftftftftftftftf/if-i-find-out-who-won-the-election
Technician license is pretty easy. You need some basic physics/electronics knowledge (ohm's law; frequency = c / wavelength [edited to correct this, lol]) and some familiarity with radio stuff. The question pool is public, so you can just practice until you're confident you'll pass.
(though I'm curious why you have a radio already without a license)
What does ‘finding out’ mean? Maybe you have a really good clue that ends up being right, but you weren’t really sure, say if you see your friend’s facial expression when the election is mentioned and think you know what it means.
@satchlj I have thought about this a lot. I am concerned that the No bettors on this market will be incentivized to message me and tell me. I think as long as there is no causal arrow between this market and the person telling me, I will believe someone if they tell me, and resolve no. If there is a causal arrow I cannot believe them because they are incentivized to lie.
@tftftftftftftftftftftftf Can't believe I now have to find out who you are, find out who your closest friends/colleagues are, bribe them to both I) tell you, and II) shut up about it.
You're making me sweat a lot for my 291 mana here, but I'm up for it.
Not sure how feasible it is to unplug from everything, I'd imagine you'd have a mental model that would keep updating your inner beliefs unless you truly don't care.
Personally, on August 7th I woke up imagining Walz was 73% to be the VP pick (it was 50/50 last I checked) and when I checked it was right around that. Similar thing happens to me for sports.
Would take similar effort as this to be successful. Idk if that's possible
@ZaneMiller every country is following the election, Canada might even be the worst of all foreign countries to go to