Some people are still on the fence about getting tickets, and they're pretty pricey at this point in time. While I still think it's a great deal (look at all the awesome folks who are coming, and all the rave reviews from last year!), I want to make sure price isn't a blocker for any great people out there.

So: I'm hosting a small prize competition! If you'd like to win a free Manifest 2025 ticket (currently valued at $730), submit a market you've created. I'm looking to reward things that eg:

Have interesting market structures
Cover unusual or important topics, particularly thoughtfully
Were notable, esp in the wider world
Provided a lot of joy to their traders and viewers

For reference, I've started this with 4 examples of markets I've loved (and I believe @tftftftftftftftftftftftf and @crowlsyong are both coming to Manifest 2025!).

Rules:

Up to 2 submissions per user
You can submit existing markets, or markets that you've created for this prize
You can submit markets on somebody else's behalf (they get the ticket if it wins)
I expect to be the main judge, but other Manifold or Manifest ppl may weigh in, or unilaterally hand out free tickets
We'll plan on awarding at least 1 free ticket, but happy to do more (eg 3-5) if there are enough great submissions
Entries close Sun 6/1 EOD, and I expect all winners will have been chosen by Mon

(I'll plan to resolve my 4 original submissions to 50%)

Update 2025-05-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For an entry (a submitted market) to resolve to YES in this market, the creator of that submitted market must meet all of the following conditions:
- Be offered a free Manifest 2025 ticket by the judge (this market's creator) or the Manifest team.
- Accept the free ticket.
- Actually attend Manifest 2025.

Update 2025-06-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated a new condition for resolution:
- If a nominated market's creator, whose market is selected as eligible for a free ticket, was already planning to attend Manifest 2025 (e.g., already had a ticket or confirmed attendance independently of this competition), their market will resolve to NO.
- This applies even if they are offered a ticket through this competition, would accept it, and do attend the event.
- As an example, the creator stated that @Quroe's submission, though selected as eligible, is intended to be resolved to NO on the basis that the creator believes @Quroe was already coming to Manifest 2025.

Update 2025-06-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated a revised stance on @Quroe's submission, following @Quroe's clarification regarding their attendance:
- The creator is now open to resolving @Quroe's market to YES.
- This differs from the intention stated in the 2025-06-03 update, where @Quroe's market was cited as an example that would resolve to NO under the 'already planning to attend' criterion.
- The creator mentioned a potential 'retrocausal' consideration (timing of the ticket offer relative to @Quroe's market being formally entered into this prize competition) but indicated they are nevertheless 'happy to resolve to YES too' for @Quroe's submission.

Update 2025-06-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated that an option resolved to YES (e.g., @Quroe's market) before Manifest 2025 attendance is confirmed, is a provisional resolution.
- Such an option will be re-resolved (e.g., to NO) if the creator of the winning market ultimately does not attend Manifest 2025. This is in accordance with the previously stated rule requiring actual attendance for a YES outcome.

Market context

Fun

Manifold

Manifest

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Trader	Total profit
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Congrats to Tumbles and Quroe for winning!

Out of the submissions, @Tumbles and @Quroe should consider themselves to have one and be eligible for free Manifest 2025 tickets. Though I believe Quroe was already coming, so will resolve that to NO (open to debate).

Now up to Tumbles if they accept!

@Austin I am now just becoming aware of this market. Should I clarify anything to aid with the resolution?

I became aware of a ticket being offered to me on May 29, 2025. Had that ticket not been offered to me, I would not have attended. That was what pushed me over the action potential needed for my attendance. At your direction, I am willing to provide proof that backs up this statement.

As far as public information goes, the conversation started here and goes on for some scrolling.

https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/918236290439335936/1377397646615908423

@Quroe mm yeah thanks for the clarification. Vaguely, I think the ticket had been offered before I'd submitted your entry into this market; I only found out about the ticket after. So it's a bit retrocausal, unclear if in the spirit of the market. OTOH I think we were excited to offer you a free ticket because of your jellybean market (in addition to your other Manifold community contributions)

I'm happy to resolve to YES too - it's all pretty academic anyways, given that I'm the only trader on that option

@Austin I personally think you'd be in the right to resolve it YES. 😊

@Quroe resolved YES! (though a bit early since Manifest hasn't started -- will reresolve, per the market rules if Quroe ends up not attending last minute for whatever reason)

@Austin Cool, I have an implied death market on me. 😆

bought Ṁ10 YES

For this market, I think an entry should resolve to YES if:
1. we (I + Manifest team) offer a free ticket
2. the creator accepts the free ticket
3. the creator actually comes to Manifest

@Austin Maybe this market should be promoted more so that people submit their own markets? Because for submitting an entry on somebody else's behalf, it will be harder to find somebody that doesn't have a ticket yet and also wants one