If Trump is elected, will there be a government shutdown before the 2026 midterms?
7
45
แน€240
2026
36%
chance

If Donald Trump does not win the 2024 presidential election this market will resolve to N/A. If Donald Trump does win the 2024 presidential election:

  • This market will resolve to YES if, before November 3rd 2026, there is a government shutdown for any amount of time. A government shutdown is defined as a failure to pass legislation funding the federal government that results in federal employees being furloughed.

  • This market will resolve to NO otherwise

Note: if this market is featured on the Manifold Politics page the @ManifoldPolitics account may make edits, issue clarifications, and decide the resolution in ambiguous cases.

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The house of reps probably has a greater effect on this