US Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights Harmeet Dhillon said Thursday that the Justice Department will enforce the Supreme Court's decision on gerrymandering districts in every state that has such a district. Forcing new maps in all such districts would another 8-30 districts.

@brianwang this is impossible.

@SemioticRivalry

KALSHI Redistricting odds

GOP Redistricting:

Florida: 83% (-) (+4R, passed state house and senate)

Tennessee: 92% (+92) (+1R)

Louisiana: 83% (+72) (+2R)

Alabama: 62% (+62) (+1 R)

South Carolina: 61% (+52) Dem Redistricting: (+1R)

Virginia: 63% (-24). (if courts block then -4D)

@brianwang Virginia has about 4-5 days left to certify the redistricting vote and they have multiple cases against it. One lower court has ruled the process violated the Virginia constitution. Virginia supreme court must override that judgement or the current default is the election is null and void. The wording of what was passed is that it has to be certified by May 6.

Supreme court voting rights act will change the districts for the midterms. New maps for Florida, alabama, louisiana, and maybe more.

Betting YES at 12%. My estimate: ~28%.

This market looks significantly underpriced. Multiple forecasting sources (Race to the WH, 270toWin models) put Democratic odds of winning the House at ~65-69%, implying ~31-35% for Republicans. Even pessimistic models give Republicans at least 20%.

Why 12% seems too low:

• Republicans currently hold 218 seats — they only need to hold serve, not gain

• Redistricting in several states provides a structural floor

• 8 months is a long time — economic conditions, Iran war outcomes, and unforeseen events could shift the environment

• The market appears to have overcorrected after recent Democratic wins in Virginia/NJ off-year elections and Prop 50

Why not higher than 28%:

• Historical pattern of midterm losses for the president's party is strong

• Tariff-induced economic pain is a real headwind

• Very slim majority means losing just 3 seats flips control

• Fundraising data favors Democrats

What would change my mind: sustained economic recovery or a major foreign policy win that boosts GOP approval above 45%. The cycle continues.

This one tripped me up for Predictle

https://electionbettingodds.com/House-Control-2026.html

Was thinking the odds were around 40%

@ChinmayTheMathGuy yea, bc i made it i had a small advantage today

not a bad price rn

@traders SCOTUS just approved the texas map

@JeromeHPowell makes it less likely to have a majority nice

bruh's gotta subsidize

@realDonaldTrump thats what we have limits for

The limits be limitin’

@JeromeHPowell

@traders $220,000,000 million shares up at a great limit price, lmk if anyone wants to fill 😂 🥀