The limits be limitin’

@JeromeHPowell

@traders $220,000,000 million shares up at a great limit price, lmk if anyone wants to fill 😂 🥀

@AmmonLam pretty good price rn!!

Liquidity added!

Does it matter who has House majority? Congress never does anything anyway because of the filibuster in the Senate.

@HankyUSA kind of does bc they can do budget reconciliation or use the nuclear option if desperate

@JeromeHPowell Perhaps I misunderstood what was going on. Aren't they currently failing to do budget reconciliation because of the filibuster? What's the nuclear option? I'm asking sincerely.

@HankyUSA The Senate is strictly majoritarian like the House. The filibuster isn't in the Constitution, its just a tradition in the Senate that is enshrined in its self-made rules. The Senate can vote to change its rules by majority vote at any time, and doing so for the filibuster is considered the "nuclear option". Some legislative options, like budget reconciliation, cannot be blocked by filibuster.

@HankyUSA to add to @Balasar budget reconciliation is a way to pass bills through the Senate without having to deal with the filibuster, is rule saying that if you have a bill that decreases the deficit over the long run, I think usually 10 years then you don’t have to have 60 votes for a bill and you can just pass it with a majority, they’re not using it right now because that’s not really what’s going on, but they did use it to pass the big beautiful bill in a controversial manner

@traders $250,000 no order at 30% by @Joshua

@JeromeHPowell undercutting my damn limit smh

This has never been worth more than 10% and I think that's me being generous

@SemioticRivalry alright, fill @AmmonLam

@JeromeHPowell Order Up

@Joshua man, that is a huge order

@SemioticRivalry I challenge you to a 1 million limit order!

@AmmonLam largest limit ever?

@SemioticRivalry 1,000,000 limit?????

@AmmonLam Do you know something we don't?

@Mrdudeguy May be I just have a lot of mana to gamble?

Meowdy! The Republican hold is precarious with many wildcards in play—redistricting, retirements, and party drama. I’ll pounce on this again tonight with fresh insights, but for now, it looks like a tough fight for GOP majority.

Pelosi isn’t coming back

this market has taken a nosedive after prop 50 passed, it makes me think that it was mispriced before because prop 50 was in the 90%< range before the vote, weird. Might just be an overreaction though.

@AmmonLam any yes orders???

@AmmonLam its a much better price and not much has changed

@JeromeHPowell Took a nosedive because of a generally good night for Dems in excess of what was expected, not because of Prop 50, which everyone knew would pass

@Balasar I’m not sure though, spanberger exeded expectations but zorhan underperformed and atlas-intel was almost right

@JeromeHPowell

Polymarket Senate odds changed heavily in favor of Dems in the past day after the results came in. This has nothing to do with Prop 50. New Jersey and Virginia were routs, Mamdani won a majority of votes in the largest turnout in 30 years after hedge fund tools spent tens of millions of dollars on a municipal race trying to defeat him. Objectively, it was a good night for the left. I agree though that 20% is too low.

@JeromeHPowell Also, atlas intel's most recent poll has Mamdani 41, Cuomo 34, Sliwa 24, which is deeply wrong.

@JeromeHPowell Large YES Limit orders up for grab

I think this is a bit of a massive overcorrection even for the Virginia results, despite how wildly they shifted. I think that federal layoffs and the government shutdown are probably causing that far more than anything nationwide trend, since Virginia is disproportionately impacted by both.

@Balasar that is just plain wrong, the last atlas intel poll shows a closer race than any of the other polls but still overcounted sliwa bc trump hadn’t endorsed Cuomo yet

https://atlasintel.org/poll/usa-nyc-2025-mayoral-election-11-03-2025

@Balasar and yes, I think we all agree that 20% is too low 👌

@JeromeHPowell ah ok I see they apparently ran two polls within like a day of each other, still I think underestimating Mamdani support by more than 6 points is not particularly accurate

@Balasar I agree, the specific numbers weren’t that accurate but the fact that it was a closer race than most polls is the main idea

@Balasar 6 points is the difference from a +10 and +22 election. (45-55

vs 39-61) Huge difference in politics

@Magnify no, I toally agree, im just saying atlas-intel was closer than many