Andrew Ward's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -2.52
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Andrew Ward bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
30%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
- Will SCOTUS reverse the Colorado Supreme Court's decision to bar Trump from the ballot? YESṀ2,000
- Will the US Supreme Court rule by Election Day 2024 that Trump is eligible to run for President of the United States?YESṀ288
- There will be a supreme court case about the 14th ammendment's ability to disqualify candidates before the 2024 electionYESṀ200
95%
- Will the US Supreme Court rule by Election Day 2024 that Trump is eligible to run for President of the United States?YESṀ1,000
- Will the US Supreme Court rule by Election Day 2024 that Trump is eligible to run for President of the United States?YESṀ1,000
- Will the US Supreme Court rule in favor of Lorie Smith, the "web designer who opposes same-sex marriage", in the case 303 Creative LLC v. Elenis?YESṀ300
97%