Update Nov 2:
To repeat certain things I have said around the comment section:
"International recognition" is not a requirement, only that the group hold significant amounts of territory and do normal government things like pass laws. International recognition is a political process that doesn't exactly grind reality at its gears. I'm ruling on this basis that the Houthi barely count as a state, Hezbollah barely doesn't.
"Declaring" war on social media is neither necessary nor sufficient to resolve this market YES. In order to count as "joining", the conflict has to escalate to a hot war involving significant loss of life or territory. Sending a bunch of missiles or accomplishing a suicide bombing does not count, and neither does providing financial support or weapons to the participants.
If a party involved barely counts as a state that means the requirements for e.g. a hot war are raised and vice versa. In general I am trying to resolve in the way a person would, if asked the question in 2025. Do not ship of theseus this.
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Just FYI this market should be at <1%.
@MilfordHammerschmidt EOY, everyone is Broke Fi Broke on similar opportunities, which is why I bought it down to 3% and stopped.
@MilfordHammerschmidt I mean you can check out my portfolio for a lot of 2% and 3% shots.
It's very weird to have Hezbollah and Ansar Allah impacting Israel militarily and economically and have this resolve no. A "hot war" is a war with "active military hostilities" according to Oxford dictionary. Hezbollah taking up artillery positions and firing missiles at Israel troops and bases is an "active military hostility." If it's not, then what specifically is and what source are you using for making that judgement? Ansar Allah yoinking Israel ships with their military and closing trade through the Red Sea via force of arms seems like an "active military hostility."
If the only thing you're willing to accept is some sort of suicidal blitzkrieg towards Tel Aviv I don't think you have a very good understanding of how modern wars are conducted and you should not be making these markets.
Rockets are being fired and soldiers are dying: https://www.timesofisrael.com/hezbollah-fires-rocket-barrage-at-northern-israel-idf-responds-with-lebanon-strikes/
@TylerPhilips @MilfordHammerschmidt This will resolve largely to what M. H. thinks. He might even close it early on you. If your interested in an unbiased resolution you might wanna remake this question yourself. This is based only on how he has handled his previous questions.
@TylerPhilips I have already clarified this below. If you bet YES because of that interpretation of the question, then that was stupid.
@MilfordHammerschmidt you wrote: "I'm looking for things like artillery exchanges"
That has been happening since October.
edit: In addition, each side is bombing each other's military bases and vehicles. That ought to qualify for what you stated in this post: https://manifold.markets/MilfordHammerschmidt/will-any-other-nations-join-the-ham#8KJ3296w4E3YDHWNEAhL
Is there some other clarification I'm missing?
@TylerPhilips read literally anything else I wrote or even the entire sentence instead of just that portion. I'm not going to be engaging with this.
@TylerPhilips none of these involve nations. hezbollah and the houthis are not nations
@MilfordHammerschmidt Yes? Did you read the original article I linked? https://www.timesofisrael.com/hezbollah-fires-rocket-barrage-at-northern-israel-idf-responds-with-lebanon-strikes/
Not that casualties are a requirement based on your previous statement :P
@SemioticRivalry The market maker stated Hezbollah counts. I personally think AnsarAllah should count as well but that's not relevant.
edit: oh my bad I reversed them. Anyway 8 members of AnsarAllah just got merked by an Apache
@MilfordHammerschmidt You wrote that artillery exchanges would count as a hot war BUT I SEE YOU HAVE EDITED THAT PART OUT AS OF RIGHT THIS INSTANT. LMAO. How do you have any credibility as a market maker? I'm sorry all I can do is laugh at this point. Changing the market resolution criteria less than 10 hours before it resolves I'm dying ahahahahaha. So what's your connection to this conflict that makes you so biased?
@TylerPhilips What are you talking about? The comment is still the exact same:
"I'm looking for things like artillery exchanges, territory moving back and forth, material support from the Lebanese government, or invasions."
A couple scenarios I’m hoping for clarification on:
1) Given that you defined “Houthi barely count as a state” and “If a party involved barely counts as a state that means the requirements for e.g. a hot war are raised” how does this resolve if Israel does a retaliatory airstrike on the Houthis? In this scenario there would likely be a lot of missiles lobbed from Yemen to Israel and some airstrikes in retaliation but no ground troops either way.
2) What if a small number of Houthi fighters go to the West Bank or Gaza?
@MilfordHammerschmidt If country enters the conflict "on the side of Palestine", does it count as YES? (They do not name Hamas).
E.g. https://new.thecradle.co/articles/algerian-parliament-unanimously-votes-to-support-palestine-militarily
Your criteria is very very misleading, you ask about 'nation' but then talk about laws and government. There is a difference between a nation and a country, and that difference is critical especially in the middle east.
The Hamas itself doesn't stand in your criteria, so the word 'other' in the question is strange.
Ok, But seriously, if Hamas fits in this criteria (as the word other implied), why does Hezbollah don't?
@CarmelHadar if a nation is having a war against a group, another nation can join and still be "other"
Good point:)
But I still think that this is not how the question understood at first