Update Nov 2:

To repeat certain things I have said around the comment section:

• "International recognition" is not a requirement, only that the group hold significant amounts of territory and do normal government things like pass laws. International recognition is a political process that doesn't exactly grind reality at its gears. I'm ruling on this basis that the Houthi barely count as a state, Hezbollah barely doesn't.

• "Declaring" war on social media is neither necessary nor sufficient to resolve this market YES. In order to count as "joining", the conflict has to escalate to a hot war involving significant loss of life or territory. Sending a bunch of missiles or accomplishing a suicide bombing does not count, and neither does providing financial support or weapons to the participants.

• If a party involved barely counts as a state that means the requirements for e.g. a hot war are raised and vice versa. In general I am trying to resolve in the way a person would, if asked the question in 2025. Do not ship of theseus this.