From my experience, prediction markets sit somewhere in between investing and gambling. They share similarities with the stock market because you’re analyzing information, trends, and probabilities before putting your money in. But unlike long-term investing, prediction markets can feel more like a bet on short-term human behavior. Honestly, it reminds me of my time on melbet egypt, sometimes it’s about strategy, but luck still plays a big role.

Trying to beat the market as a retail investor is the same as gambling

Nice background art!

@Unown Bitcoin, stock market and poker chips, that pretty much summarizes my activity on Manifold

There's more longer-term strategizing in Manifold akin to investing; less like gambling although there are some similarities to wagering especially as it relates to sports and political outcomes

@Bruce54df That's because investing is gambling slowly.

@HarrisonNathan investing for retirement is gambling for retirement slowly?

@AmmonLam That's correct. It only seems different to you because Americans have been on a winning streak for a few generations. Ask any Japanese person who tried it for the last three decades, and you might hear a different story.

They are the same picture.

@HarrisonNathan Investing is not the same as gambling although they have a lot in common. Think of buying a money market mutual fund; that's not gambling but it is currently generating a 5% yield. Investing in a well-diversified index fund of equities is not gambling either. Buying Trump's SPAC with the ticker DJT is gambling.

@Bruce54df Trying to beat the risk free rate is gambling. There are wise gambles, though, and a diversified equity portfolio is arguably one of them.