Profit sharing: which markets should I bet on?
Ṁ500 / 500
bounty left

I'm struggling to discover enough favourable markets to make use of most of my mana. If you can find me a good market to bet on, I will give you 10% of any profit I make.

Some ideas for the sorts of markets I'm looking for:

  • Looking at my profit history is probably a good shout

  • I'm looking to maximise rate of return, roughly per unit time, and roughly per unit effort invested, so these traits are good:

    • Paying off quickly (either by resolving or by the market updating towards my position)

    • Being able to absorb a lot of mana

  • Anything involving (non-sensitive) inside knowledge of:

    • Effective Altruism

    • Tech/software engineering (e.g. "will this company have an outage?" etc)

    • Physics, maths to some extent (e.g. "will this puzzle be solved by X date?")

    • Stuff that happens on twitter

  • Questions where it is possible to come up with a quantitative model based on scraped data

  • Questions where a simple custom trading bot could make a profit (I want to experiment with tooling for writing these quickly so having markets to test them on would be useful. "Will the S&P 500 close higher today?" is an example of this sort of market

  • Anything that is "trending" and attracting a lot of noise traders

More details of criteria for receiving the bounty:

  • You don't have to be the only cause of me betting on a market, just one of the factors that made me consider it. If you recommend market that I've already looked at in detail I probably won't give you the bounty, but otherwise I probably will. Seeing as this is experimental I will be quite liberal in giving out bounties

  • You can explain why you think I should bet on a market here, or if you think this will give too much away DM me on twitter or the EA Forum. But please leave a comment here saying "dm'd" or something so I can give out the bounty. Also you don't have to explain if you think it isn't necessary

  • I will pay it out upon realising the profit (i.e. selling my position or the market resolving), usually I don't hold positions for that long so this shouldn't be more than a few weeks. If I do something that means there is no simple way to do this (such selling part of my position but holding the rest for a really long time) I'll come up with a sensible number to pay you, or we can negotiate

  • Spamming too many markets in the comments will make me apply a higher bar (in terms of counterfactualness) for paying out the bounty on any particular market. But otherwise there is no limit on the number you can recommend, and you can get some bounty more than once

  • If the bounty is nearly gone and then I make a huge profit on a market you recommended, I will pay you the difference directly (up to another M500). Only if it's a big difference though (like M50 left in the bounty and then I make M2000 on your recommendation)

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
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What expected ROI makes you think it's worth betting on?

I look through „new“ and „closing soon“ markets a lot.

You can be quicker than anybody else on new markets if they are obviously not 50%.

Yesterday was a great day for stock market stuff like this one. This does not provide huge returns but 3% per day snowballs very quickly.

bet on my markets because they are big profit! Do you believe that apples will produce milk in 2030? if so, you could make some big big returns!

All the crude oil futures markets are mispriced (and there are a bunch of them). You can scrape options data to get market estimates that are either the correct price for the market or closely related (e.g. American vs. European options styles). They're mostly mispriced enough that you could ignore the ways in which they're not quite identical.