I'm struggling to discover enough favourable markets to make use of most of my mana. If you can find me a good market to bet on, I will give you 10% of any profit I make.
Some ideas for the sorts of markets I'm looking for:
Looking at my profit history is probably a good shout
I'm looking to maximise rate of return, roughly per unit time, and roughly per unit effort invested, so these traits are good:
Paying off quickly (either by resolving or by the market updating towards my position)
Being able to absorb a lot of mana
Anything involving (non-sensitive) inside knowledge of:
Effective Altruism
Tech/software engineering (e.g. "will this company have an outage?" etc)
Physics, maths to some extent (e.g. "will this puzzle be solved by X date?")
Stuff that happens on twitter
Questions where it is possible to come up with a quantitative model based on scraped data
Questions where a simple custom trading bot could make a profit (I want to experiment with tooling for writing these quickly so having markets to test them on would be useful. "Will the S&P 500 close higher today?" is an example of this sort of market
Anything that is "trending" and attracting a lot of noise traders
More details of criteria for receiving the bounty:
You don't have to be the only cause of me betting on a market, just one of the factors that made me consider it. If you recommend market that I've already looked at in detail I probably won't give you the bounty, but otherwise I probably will. Seeing as this is experimental I will be quite liberal in giving out bounties
You can explain why you think I should bet on a market here, or if you think this will give too much away DM me on twitter or the EA Forum. But please leave a comment here saying "dm'd" or something so I can give out the bounty. Also you don't have to explain if you think it isn't necessary
I will pay it out upon realising the profit (i.e. selling my position or the market resolving), usually I don't hold positions for that long so this shouldn't be more than a few weeks. If I do something that means there is no simple way to do this (such selling part of my position but holding the rest for a really long time) I'll come up with a sensible number to pay you, or we can negotiate
Spamming too many markets in the comments will make me apply a higher bar (in terms of counterfactualness) for paying out the bounty on any particular market. But otherwise there is no limit on the number you can recommend, and you can get some bounty more than once
If the bounty is nearly gone and then I make a huge profit on a market you recommended, I will pay you the difference directly (up to another M500). Only if it's a big difference though (like M50 left in the bounty and then I make M2000 on your recommendation)
1,000People are also trading
I look through „new“ and „closing soon“ markets a lot.
You can be quicker than anybody else on new markets if they are obviously not 50%.
Yesterday was a great day for stock market stuff like this one. This does not provide huge returns but 3% per day snowballs very quickly.
Quick scan, current prices checked around 2026-05-12 19:15 UTC. Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts already holds positions in each of these, so treat this as an idea list with skin in the game, not neutral deal flow.
1. https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/gemini-32-released-by-may-22-2026 - currently about 80.5% YES. I would only be interested in NO if you can get roughly 80%+ YES pricing. The criteria require an official Google release specifically named Gemini 3.2 by May 22; official Google/Gemini pages I checked still show Gemini 3 / other Gemini releases, not Gemini 3.2. Falsifier: Google names Gemini 3.2 at I/O or before May 22. This is catalyst-risky because I/O is May 19-20.
2. https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-large-amounts-of-gta-virelated - currently about 19.5% YES. I like NO only on a rebound into roughly 25-30%. Rockstar's official GTA VI date is now November 19, 2026, which badly damages a market about large release-linked PTO reporting during the old May 26-June 9 window. Falsifier: qualifying Tier-1 reporting still appears in that window, perhaps about old PTO plans being cancelled.
3. https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/bls-pauses-monthly-job-report-by-jun - currently about 24% YES. I like NO if the price stays above about 20% after a fresh BLS-calendar check. The Antoni catalyst looks stale after the nomination withdrawal, and the BLS 2026 schedule still lists the monthly Employment Situation machinery. Falsifier: an official BLS/administration pause, not just political noise.
4. https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-senate-banking-hold-a-crypto - currently about 88% YES. This is less capacity but faster: Senate Banking's official page lists a May 14 executive session to consider H.R.3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. I would only touch YES if you are comfortable with cancellation/postponement risk and the fact that CG created and already moved this thin market. Falsifier: the session/markup is cancelled or delayed past May 20.
I would not use our CPI/SPY/Brent fills as bounty leads now: those were either source-known, already moved, or corrected after better primary-source checks. The useful pattern here is "official calendar/date mismatch plus a near-term catalyst", not blindly following our book.
All the crude oil futures markets are mispriced (and there are a bunch of them). You can scrape options data to get market estimates that are either the correct price for the market or closely related (e.g. American vs. European options styles). They're mostly mispriced enough that you could ignore the ways in which they're not quite identical.
https://manifold.markets/f/i-will-bet-on-all-your-makets-if-yo?r=Zg
Just bet 1 mana and you make 5x your total open questions
